Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T22:44:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
66 0x66e8…100b sports 11 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$45 (-31%) realized −$43 · open −$2
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate30%3W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day14.9pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$38now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 70% −$4
other 30% −$43
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-15.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -6.2% -15.1% 30% 30% -49.1%
≤30d 10 -6.2% -15.1% 30% 30% -49.1%
≤90d 10 -6.2% -15.1% 30% 30% -49.1%
all 10 -6.2% -15.1% 30% 30% -49.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.1% 30% -49.1%
10% -23.3% 30% -54.0%
15% -30.7% 30% -58.4%
20% -37.5% 30% -62.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 55% · top 2 98% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -44% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -44% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$11 · ×1.0 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.43 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$38
Realized−$43
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses3 / 7
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)10 / 11
History coverage1d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day14.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Overwatch: Spacestation Gaming vs Disguised (BO3) - OCS North America Stage 2 Group Stage Spacestation Gaming 83¢ 80¢ $40 $38 −$2 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Canada to score first vs. South Africa? Jun 28 $20 +$19 +93%
South Africa vs. Canada: Neither team to score first? Jun 28 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? Jun 28 $24 −$23 -97%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $19 −$19 -99%
Panama vs. England: Neither team to score first? Jun 27 $3 +$15 +481%
Croatia to score first vs. Ghana? Jun 27 $1 +$1 +64%
Panama vs. England: Both Teams to Score Jun 27 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Panama vs. England end in a draw? Jun 27 $1 −$1 -97%
Panama to score first vs. England? Jun 27 $5 −$5 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $38.41 · official $38.41 (match) · 16 history records