Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:42:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
66 0x66e8…4d61 crypto 1590 markets active 7d ago coverage 16d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 15d only
✗ bot/MM pace (185 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$924 (-15%) realized −$924 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate54%906W / 780L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day185.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$728
7 days−$716
14 days−$883
30 days−$630
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$98
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (185 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-21.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 308 -85.0% -86.5% 6% 6% -90.4%
≤30d 1686 -13.4% -21.6% 54% 35% -18.8%
≤90d 1686 -13.4% -21.6% 54% 35% -18.8%
all 1686 -13.4% -21.6% 54% 35% -18.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover185.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -21.6% 35% -18.8%
10% ← realistic here -29.1% 32% -26.6%
15% -36.0% 30% -33.7%
20% -42.2% 26% -40.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
34% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +10% → late -36% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.56 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$924
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses906 / 780
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1686 / 1590
History coverage16d ⚠
Avg bet$4
Trades / day185.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1686 Trades
no open positions (500 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET SELL Up 97¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $3 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records