Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T20:50:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
66 0x66e6…cb20 politics 144 markets active 1h ago coverage 127d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL −$60 (-0%) realized −$60 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate6%9W / 135L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$163per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 42% −$11
politics 37% −$11
sports 10% −$39
crypto 3% −$1
economics 3% −$1
tech 3% −$1
world 1% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 18 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 109 -0.1% -9.6% 2% 0% -9.6%
all 144 -1.9% -11.2% 6% 3% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.2% 3% -9.8%
10% -19.7% 1% -18.4%
15% -27.5% 1% -26.3%
20% -34.6% 1% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 57% · top 2 85% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
56% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$1 · ×7.31 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.49 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

127d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$60
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)6%
Wins / losses9 / 135
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)144 / 144
History coverage127d
Avg bet$163
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 144 Trades
no open positions (8 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 21 $48 $0 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 21 $15 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 20 $175 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jun 14 $181 $0 -0%
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 11 $20 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 10 $422 $0 -0%
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 09 $19 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $138 $0 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 07 $20 $0 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 07 $23 $0 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 30 $15 $0 -0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 29 $132 $0 -0%
Will Kyle Langford win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 27 $243 $0 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? May 26 $122 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 26 $555 −$1 -0%
Will Daniel Mercuri win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 24 $121 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 23 $125 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 22 $265 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 22 $266 −$1 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 21 $687 −$1 -0%
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 20 $158 $0 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 20 $313 $0 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 19 $399 −$1 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 17 $158 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 16 $410 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 15 $118 $0 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 13 $156 $0 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 12 $127 $0 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 11 $134 $0 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? May 10 $156 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 10 $114 $0 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? May 10 $154 $0 -0%
Will Park Hong-keun win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 07 $324 $0 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 06 $159 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $143 $0 -0%
Will Ahn Cheol-soo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 05 $152 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 05 $147 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 05 $151 $0 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? May 04 $121 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 04 $441 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 04 $170 $0 -0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? May 03 $286 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 03 $261 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 03 $127 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? May 02 $135 $0 -0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 30 $116 $0 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? Apr 30 $130 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 30 $121 $0 -0%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 28 $122 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 22 $162 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $26 1h
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $26 4h
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $15 17h
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $15 27h
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $17 27h
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $17 2d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $27 7d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $27 7d
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $20 10d
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $20 10d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $16 11d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $16 11d
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $19 11d
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $19 12d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $18 12d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $18 13d
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $20 14d
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $20 14d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $23 14d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $23 14d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $22 20d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $22 21d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $15 22d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $15 22d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $132 23d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $132 25d
Will Kyle Langford win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $121 25d
Will Kyle Langford win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $121 25d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $122 25d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $122 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 435 history records