Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T17:07:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
66 0x66e5…ab40 world 78 markets active 0h ago coverage 492d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$15 (-1%) realized −$15 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate23%18W / 59L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$35per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$5
14 days+$5
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 53% −$1
other 18% −$2
politics 17% $0
sports 10% −$11
finance 2% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-12.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +2.4% -7.4% 14% 14% -7.5%
≤30d 23 +0.4% -9.2% 30% 4% -9.2%
≤90d 70 -0.1% -9.6% 21% 4% -9.7%
all 77 -2.7% -12.0% 23% 4% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.0% 4% -10.0%
10% -20.4% 0% -18.6%
15% -28.1% 0% -26.5%
20% -35.1% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 60% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
83% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.89 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.5 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

492d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$15
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses18 / 59
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)77 / 78
History coverage492d
Avg bet$35
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 77 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+24%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 25 $82 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 23 $4 $0 +0%
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? Jun 22 $6 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? Jun 20 $39 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 19 $34 +$6 +17%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 19 $78 $0 -0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $4 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $3 $0 +0%
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $33 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 15 $34 +$1 +2%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $36 $0 -0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 14 $22 −$1 -2%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 13 $35 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 11 $34 $0 +1%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 09 $7 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 09 $34 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $42 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 05 $36 $0 -0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 04 $36 −$2 -4%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 03 $79 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 02 $101 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 01 $39 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 27 $37 −$1 -4%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 25 $42 −$6 -15%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 24 $21 +$3 +15%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 24 $45 −$2 -4%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 23 $44 −$2 -4%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 23 $7 $0 -2%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 21 $85 +$3 +4%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 21 $46 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 21 $81 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 21 $3 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 19 $81 −$1 -1%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 16 $40 $0 -0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 27 $49 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $1 $0 +17%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $99 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 24 $40 $0 +1%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 24 $1 $0 -7%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 23 $44 $0 +0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 22 $5 $0 -0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $49 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $41 −$1 -1%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $45 $0 +0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 14 $86 $0 +0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Apr 13 $4 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 12 $36 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 12 $29 $0 +0%
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 12 $1 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 11 $41 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $43 20m
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $43 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $9 27h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $30 27h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $39 30h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 9¢ $4 41h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 43h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $3 43h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL Yes 7¢ $6 2d
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY Yes 7¢ $2 2d
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY Yes 7¢ $4 2d
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? SELL No 88¢ $39 5d
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? BUY No 88¢ $39 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 75¢ $40 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 64¢ $34 5d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 8¢ $2 6d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 8¢ $4 6d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 8¢ $6 6d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $38 6d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $38 6d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 6d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 5¢ $3 6d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 5¢ $4 7d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 7d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 7d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 8d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 8d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 8d
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $9 8d
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $24 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.02 · official $0.00 (match) · 298 history records