Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T23:19:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
66 0x66e3…e0d5 sports 176 markets active 2h ago coverage 174d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$17 (-0%) realized −$17 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate9%15W / 161L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$56per market
Trades / day3.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 26% −$5
other 26% −$5
politics 22% −$2
economics 9% −$1
crypto 8% −$4
world 6% −$1
culture 4% $0
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 4 -0.4% -9.9% 25% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 5 -0.4% -9.9% 20% 0% -9.9%
all 176 -1.3% -10.7% 9% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -19.2% 0% -18.3%
15% -27.0% 0% -26.2%
20% -34.2% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 53% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.0 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.12 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

174d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$17
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)9%
Wins / losses15 / 161
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)176 / 176
History coverage174d
Avg bet$56
Trades / day3.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 176 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 28 $32 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $94 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 08 $44 $0 -1%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 31 $42 $0 -1%
Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026? May 18 $33 $0 -1%
Will Sweden win Eurovision 2026? Mar 22 $33 $0 -0%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Mar 22 $88 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Penguins win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 22 $95 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 22 $76 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 21 $339 −$2 -1%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 21 $145 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 21 $219 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Mar 20 $162 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in March? Mar 20 $35 −$1 -2%
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 20 $38 $0 -0%
Will Akshay Bhatia win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 19 $42 $0 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 19 $184 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 18 $42 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Mar 18 $284 $0 -0%
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? Mar 18 $60 $0 +0%
Will the Buffalo Sabres win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 18 $46 $0 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 17 $96 $0 -0%
Will Illinois win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 17 $42 $0 +0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 17 $38 $0 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 17 $158 $0 -0%
Will Greece win Eurovision 2026? Mar 16 $74 $0 +0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 16 $193 $0 -0%
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 16 $94 $0 -0%
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? Mar 16 $39 $0 -0%
Will Tottenham Hotspur reach the UEFA Champions League quarter-finals? Mar 15 $75 −$1 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in March? Mar 15 $36 $0 -0%
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2026? Mar 13 $38 $0 -0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Mar 13 $47 $0 -0%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15? Mar 12 $43 $0 +0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 11 $75 $0 -0%
Will Xander Schauffele win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 11 $45 $0 -0%
Will Ludvig Aberg win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 11 $46 $0 +0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 10 $160 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026? Mar 10 $37 $0 -0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Mar 09 $152 −$1 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 09 $38 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 09 $91 $0 -0%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? Mar 08 $45 −$1 -2%
Will Sadegh Larijani be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Mar 07 $39 $0 -1%
Will the Utah Mammoth win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 07 $103 $0 -0%
Will Cade Cunningham win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Mar 06 $57 −$1 -1%
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? Mar 06 $74 $0 +1%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Mar 06 $54 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? Mar 05 $149 −$1 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 04 $42 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $32 2h
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $32 10h
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $38 12d
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $38 12d
Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $44 20d
Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $44 20d
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 90¢ $41 28d
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 90¢ $42 28d
Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 97¢ $32 41d
Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 98¢ $33 41d
Will Sweden win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 96¢ $33 98d
Will Sweden win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 96¢ $33 98d
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? SELL No 98¢ $40 98d
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? BUY No 98¢ $24 98d
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? BUY No 98¢ $16 98d
Will the Pittsburgh Penguins win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL No 97¢ $42 98d
Will the Pittsburgh Penguins win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY No 98¢ $42 98d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 96¢ $35 98d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 96¢ $35 99d
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 93¢ $35 99d
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 94¢ $35 99d
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 94¢ $42 99d
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 94¢ $42 99d
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 96¢ $44 99d
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 96¢ $44 99d
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 96¢ $38 99d
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 96¢ $38 100d
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $32 100d
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $32 100d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in March? SELL No 94¢ $34 100d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 687 history records