Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T23:47:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
66 0x66e1…4dc8 crypto 49 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (59 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$48 (+7%) realized +$47 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate33%16W / 32L
Drawdown63%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day59.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% +$151
other 2% +$1
sports 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (59 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-17.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 48 -8.7% -17.4% 33% 31% +11.1%
≤30d 48 -8.7% -17.4% 33% 31% +11.1%
≤90d 48 -8.7% -17.4% 33% 31% +11.1%
all 48 -8.7% -17.4% 33% 31% +11.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover59.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.4% 31% +11.1%
10% ← realistic here -25.3% 31% +0.5%
15% -32.5% 29% -9.2%
20% -39.2% 29% -18.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +23% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt +23% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -40% → late +22% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$32 vs −$11 · ×2.85 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.42 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized+$47
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses16 / 32
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)48 / 49
History coverage1d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day59.0
Drawdown63%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 48 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+62%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 29 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 23 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 23 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 23 $26 +$74 +282%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 23 $26 +$34 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 23 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 23 $26 +$33 +126%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 23 $26 +$24 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 23 $26 +$71 +271%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 23 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 23 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 23 $11 +$32 +308%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 23 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 23 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 23 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 23 $51 +$26 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 23 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 23 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 23 $11 +$29 +272%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 23 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 23 $11 +$32 +308%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 23 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 23 $18 −$8 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 23 $10 +$9 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 23 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 23 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 23 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 23 $10 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 23 $10 +$4 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 23 $10 +$21 +198%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 23 $10 +$18 +173%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 23 $13 −$2 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 23 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 23 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 23 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 23 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 23 $10 +$9 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 23 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 23 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 23 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 23 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 23 $13 −$12 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 23 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 23 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 23 $26 +$90 +342%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 23 $4 −$4 -97%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $10 $0 +4%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 22 $11 −$9 -87%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET SELL Up 1¢ $1 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $26 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $26 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET SELL Down 86¢ $71 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $60 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $59 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET SELL Up 91¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $98 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 8¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $43 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $78 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $51 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 6¢ $11 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $11 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $39 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $11 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $11 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $43 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $11 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.62 · official $1.62 (match) · 76 history records