Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T21:31:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
66 0x66df…9811 other 175 markets active 2h ago coverage 607d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$1,516 (+3%) realized +$1,176 · open +$340
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -28% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate25%41W / 121L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown62%max
Avg bet$296per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$97est.
Kalshi-fit34%portable
Net worth$14,921now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$39
7 days−$154
14 days−$103
30 days+$66
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 77% +$679
sports 16% −$334
politics 6% +$994
finance 0% −$7
crypto 0% +$50
culture 0% −$58
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-35.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -58.6% -62.5% 0% 0% -61.0%
≤30d 13 -19.0% -26.7% 23% 23% -7.1%
≤90d 75 -49.7% -54.5% 13% 11% -18.3%
all 162 -28.4% -35.2% 25% 20% -5.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -35.2% 20% -5.0%
10% -41.4% 17% -14.1%
15% -47.1% 15% -22.4%
20% -52.3% 13% -30.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -28% · $-wt +5% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -8% → late -49% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$129 vs −$36 · ×3.62 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.23 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

607d coverage
Net worth$14,921
Realized+$1,176
Unrealized+$340
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses41 / 121
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$97
Open positions13
Markets (closed)162 / 175
History coverage607d
Avg bet$296
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown62%
Kalshi-fit34%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 162 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 99¢ $11,536 $11,571 +$35 (+0%)
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 48¢ 61¢ $766 $968 +$202 (+26%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 20¢ $368 $571 +$203 (+55%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 13¢ $380 $372 −$9 (-2%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $404 $354 −$50 (-12%)
UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card) Max Holloway 69¢ 67¢ $270 $261 −$9 (-3%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 6¢ $100 $150 +$50 (+50%)
Will Wyndham Clark win the 2026 U.S. Open? Yes 64¢ 46¢ $201 $144 −$57 (-28%)
Will the Los Angeles Rams win the 2027 NFL league championship? Yes 10¢ 16¢ $88 $141 +$53 (+61%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 7¢ $212 $133 −$79 (-37%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 12¢ $100 $125 +$25 (+25%)
Will the Seattle Seahawks win the 2027 NFL league championship? Yes 10¢ 8¢ $100 $79 −$21 (-21%)
Will the Buffalo Bills win the 2027 NFL league championship? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $57 $53 −$4 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Sam Burns win the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 21 $99 −$33 -33%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $41 −$1 -2%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $6 −$6 -98%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $26 −$15 -58%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Will JT Poston win the 2026 the Memorial Tournament presented by Workd Jun 08 $101 +$51 +50%
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 the Memorial Tournament presented Jun 06 $49 −$20 -41%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 06 $980 −$125 -13%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 06 $227 +$25 +11%
Will the Baltimore Ravens win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 02 $24 −$4 -17%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $442 +$310 +70%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the NBA Western Conference Finals? May 29 $81 −$10 -13%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 25 $255 −$6 -2%
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 19 $399 −$12 -3%
Will Nick Taylor win the 2026 PGA Championship? May 17 $31 −$30 -97%
Will Alex Smalley win the 2026 PGA Championship? May 17 $137 −$105 -76%
Will Jon Rahm win the 2026 PGA Championship? May 17 $28 −$28 -98%
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 PGA Championship? May 17 $40 −$38 -95%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 13 $50 −$13 -25%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 11 $135 +$243 +180%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 05 $20 −$2 -8%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 05 $20 +$1 +4%
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 28 $182 +$13 +7%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 27 $234 −$2 -1%
49ers vs. Rams Apr 16 $486 −$263 -54%
Will Davis Thompson win the 2025 Sanderson Farms Championship? Apr 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Matt Fitzpatrick win the 2025 DPW Tour Omega European Masters? Apr 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2025 FedEx St. Jude Championship? Apr 16 $421 −$117 -28%
Will Akshay Bhatia win the 2025 Sanderson Farms Championship? Apr 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Chiefs vs. Jaguars Apr 16 $221 −$90 -41%
Will Chris Gotterup be the first round leader at the 2025 BMW Champion Apr 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Jason Day be the first round leader at the 2025 BMW Championship? Apr 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Patrick Cantlay be the first round leader at the 2025 BMW Champio Apr 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Lakers vs. Suns Apr 16 $95 −$95 -100%
Will Thomas Detry be the first round leader at the 2025 BMW Championsh Apr 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Harry Hall be the first round leader at the 2025 BMW Championship Apr 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Taylor Pendrith be the first round leader at the 2025 BMW Champio Apr 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Timothée Chalamet win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? Apr 16 $58 −$58 -100%
Ankalaev vs. Pereira Apr 16 $141 −$141 -100%
Will Ryo Hisatsune win the 2026 WM Phoenix Open? Apr 16 $39 −$39 -100%
Will Rickie Fowler win the 2025 BMW Championship? Apr 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Jason Day win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 16 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Maverick McNealy win the 2025 BMW Championship? Apr 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Collin Morikawa win the 2025 BMW Championship? Apr 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Patriots vs. Bills Apr 16 $523 −$294 -56%
Will Ben Griffin win the 2025 BMW Championship? Apr 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Chris Gotterup win the 2025 FedEx St. Jude Championship? Apr 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2025 Tour Championship? Apr 16 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Viktor Hovland win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 16 $30 −$22 -73%
Will Hideki Matsuyama win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 16 $26 −$26 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Wyndham Clark win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 54¢ $47 1h
Will Sam Burns win the 2026 U.S. Open? SELL Yes 25¢ $47 1h
Will Wyndham Clark win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 51¢ $19 1h
Will Sam Burns win the 2026 U.S. Open? SELL Yes 26¢ $19 1h
Will Sam Burns win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 36¢ $99 1h
Will Wyndham Clark win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 71¢ $137 2h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $236 2h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $32 4h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $31 4h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $6 42h
UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card) SELL Max Holloway 67¢ $53 6d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $11 6d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $11 6d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $24 6d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 51¢ $101 6d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $119 6d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $5,893 11d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $206 11d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 91¢ $6,227 11d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 91¢ $63 12d
UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card) BUY Max Holloway 69¢ $328 13d
Will JT Poston win the 2026 the Memorial Tournament presented by Workd BUY Yes 66¢ $101 14d
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 the Memorial Tournament presented SELL Yes 11¢ $29 15d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 26¢ $14 15d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 37¢ $21 15d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 64¢ $252 15d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 56¢ $227 15d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 46¢ $226 15d
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 the Memorial Tournament presented BUY Yes 7¢ $3 16d
Will the Los Angeles Rams win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY Yes 16¢ $6 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $14,920.84 · official $14,921.09 (match) · 827 history records