Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T05:57:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
66 0x66dd…7e1b crypto 859 markets active 1h ago coverage 198d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$28 (-3%) realized −$28 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate48%414W / 445L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day4.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days−$7
14 days−$18
30 days−$42
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$43
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-15.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 461 -3.3% -12.5% 51% 51% -10.9%
≤30d 818 -6.2% -15.1% 48% 48% -13.8%
≤90d 818 -6.2% -15.1% 48% 48% -13.8%
all 859 -6.0% -15.0% 48% 48% -13.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.0% 48% -13.8%
10% -23.1% 48% -22.0%
15% -30.5% 47% -29.6%
20% -37.3% 47% -36.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.97 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

198d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$28
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses414 / 445
Open positions0
Markets (closed)859 / 859
History coverage198d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day4.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 859 Trades
no open positions (421 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$2 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $1 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $1 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $1 13h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1319 history records