Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T17:13:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
66 0x66dd…4f0b politics 54 markets active 386d ago coverage 153d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$321 (+5%) realized +$321 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate52%28W / 26L
Drawdown10%max
Avg bet$123per market
Trades / day14.5pace
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 46% +$146
tech 36% +$301
crypto 10% −$29
other 4% +$5
sports 3% −$7
economics 1% +$4
world 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-15.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d no closed markets
all 54 -7.0% -15.8% 52% 13% -3.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.8% 13% -3.8%
10% -23.9% 6% -13.0%
15% -31.3% 0% -21.4%
20% -38.0% 0% -29.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 62% · top 2 93% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI — too few recent
Fragile wins
71% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
21.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$3 · ×6.18 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×7.87 per $1 lost it wins $7.87
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

153d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$321
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses28 / 26
Open positions0
Markets (closed)54 / 54
History coverage153d
Avg bet$123
Trades / day14.5
Drawdown10%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 54 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after June 2025 meeting? Mar 01 $0 $0 -100%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after May 2025 meeting? Mar 01 $0 $0 -100%
Will Aaron Rodgers sign with the Indianapolis Colts? Mar 01 $0 $0 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after May 2025 meeting? Mar 01 $0 $0 -100%
China x Taiwan military clash by June 30? Mar 25 $1 $0 +11%
Will Victor Ponta win the Romanian presidential election? Mar 23 $4 $0 +1%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 22 $2 $0 -3%
Will 'Snow White' gross more than 49m on opening weekend? Mar 22 $2 $0 +3%
Will Ethereum hit $2,600.00 again by March 31? Mar 22 $5 $0 -0%
No change in Fed interest rates after May 2025 meeting? Mar 22 $6 $0 -2%
Will Anamaria Gavrilă win the Romanian presidential election? Mar 16 $0 $0 +25%
Will Kansas win the 2025 NCAA Tournament? Mar 04 $0 $0 -10%
Will AOC win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City? Mar 02 $0 $0 +0%
Will FIT-U hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following th Mar 02 $0 $0 +0%
Will the Dallas Mavericks win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 01 $0 $0 +0%
Zelenskyy puts on a suit by Friday? Mar 01 $0 $0 +26%
Will Elon tweet 900-949 times Feb 28 - March 7? Mar 01 $0 $0 -32%
Will Elon tweet 1000 or more times Feb 28 - March 7? Mar 01 $0 $0 +29%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after March 2025 meeting? Mar 01 $0 $0 +6%
Will Union win the most seats in the next German election? Feb 23 $94 −$4 -5%
Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by February 28, 2025? Feb 21 $53 −$3 -7%
Will Solana dip to $160 by January 31, 2025? Jan 30 $25 −$7 -27%
Will another player win NFL MVP for the 2024-2025 season? Jan 30 $11 +$1 +6%
Will the AfD win 20-25% of the vote in the German election? Jan 30 $20 +$1 +4%
Ethereum above $3,400 on January 31? Jan 30 $52 +$5 +10%
Will AfD win the most seats in the next German election? Jan 29 $14 +$1 +5%
Will Elon tweet less than 250 times Jan 24-31? Jan 29 $87 +$2 +2%
Will Lamar Jackson win NFL MVP for the 2024-25 season? Jan 29 $120 +$1 +1%
Will Trump pardon Roger Ver in his first 100 days? Jan 29 $12 $0 -0%
Will Juventus win the UEFA Champions League? Jan 29 $20 −$10 -50%
Will Bitcoin dip to $85,000 by January 31, 2025? Jan 29 $96 −$18 -19%
Will the Eagles win Super Bowl 2025? Jan 29 $10 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,750 by January 31? Jan 29 $64 −$14 -23%
Will Elon tweet 250-274 times Jan 24-31? Jan 29 $31 +$1 +4%
Will the Chiefs win Super Bowl 2025? Jan 29 $10 $0 +0%
Will the AfD win over 30% of the vote in the German election? Jan 29 $10 $0 -5%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after March 2025 meeting? Jan 29 $32 +$4 +13%
Bitcoin above $105,000 on January 31? Jan 29 $230 $0 -0%
Will Josh Allen win NFL MVP for the 2024-25 season? Jan 29 $62 +$2 +3%
2025 January hottest on record? Jan 29 $11 +$2 +13%
Bitcoin all time high by January 31? Jan 29 $55 +$5 +8%
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days? Jan 29 $20 −$1 -5%
Trump ends taxes on tips in first 100 days? Jan 29 $20 +$1 +4%
Ripple above $3.15 on January 31? Jan 29 $35 −$1 -4%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by January 31, 2025? Jan 29 $65 +$4 +7%
RFK Jr. confirmed as Health & Human Services Secretary? Jan 29 $50 +$2 +4%
Google Maps renames it "Gulf of America" before March? Jan 29 $10 +$1 +10%
Will the AfD win 25-30% of the vote in the German election? Jan 29 $5 $0 +2%
Tulsi Gabbard confirmed as Director of National Intelligence? Jan 29 $15 $0 +1%
Will Monaco win the UEFA Champions League? Jan 29 $5 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after June 2025 meeting? BUY Yes $0 385d
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after May 2025 meeting? BUY Yes $0 421d
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after May 2025 meeting? BUY Yes $0 425d
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after May 2025 meeting? BUY Yes $0 449d
China x Taiwan military clash by June 30? SELL Yes $1 461d
China x Taiwan military clash by June 30? SELL Yes $0 463d
Will Victor Ponta win the Romanian presidential election? SELL Yes 10¢ $1 463d
Will Victor Ponta win the Romanian presidential election? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 463d
Will Victor Ponta win the Romanian presidential election? SELL Yes 10¢ $1 463d
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2025 NBA Finals? SELL Yes $2 464d
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2025 NBA Finals? BUY Yes $1 464d
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2025 NBA Finals? BUY Yes $1 464d
Will Victor Ponta win the Romanian presidential election? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 464d
Will 'Snow White' gross more than 49m on opening weekend? SELL Yes $0 464d
Will 'Snow White' gross more than 49m on opening weekend? SELL Yes $2 464d
China x Taiwan military clash by June 30? BUY Yes $0 464d
China x Taiwan military clash by June 30? BUY Yes $0 464d
Will 'Snow White' gross more than 49m on opening weekend? BUY Yes $1 464d
Will 'Snow White' gross more than 49m on opening weekend? BUY Yes $1 464d
Will Victor Ponta win the Romanian presidential election? SELL Yes $1 464d
Will Victor Ponta win the Romanian presidential election? SELL Yes $1 464d
Will Victor Ponta win the Romanian presidential election? BUY Yes $0 464d
Will Victor Ponta win the Romanian presidential election? BUY Yes $1 464d
Will Victor Ponta win the Romanian presidential election? BUY Yes $1 464d
Will Ethereum hit $2,600.00 again by March 31? BUY Yes $0 464d
Will Ethereum hit $2,600.00 again by March 31? BUY No 98¢ $5 464d
No change in Fed interest rates after May 2025 meeting? SELL No 17¢ $1 464d
No change in Fed interest rates after May 2025 meeting? BUY No 18¢ $1 464d
No change in Fed interest rates after May 2025 meeting? BUY No 18¢ $1 464d
No change in Fed interest rates after May 2025 meeting? BUY Yes 83¢ $4 464d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2224 history records