Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T09:05:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
66 0x66db…9f07 weather 215 markets active 0h ago coverage 41d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$60 (+0%) realized +$60 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate98%205W / 5L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown2%max
Avg bet$194per market
Trades / day16.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$575now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days+$8
14 days+$18
30 days+$48
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% +$59
sports 0% −$1
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 52 -1.8% -11.2% 96% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 164 -0.3% -9.8% 97% 1% -9.4%
≤90d 210 -0.1% -9.6% 98% 1% -9.4%
all 210 -0.1% -9.6% 98% 1% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 1% -9.4%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.1%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.71 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×36.64 per $1 lost it wins $36.64
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

41d coverage
Net worth$575
Realized+$60
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)98%
Wins / losses205 / 5
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions5
Markets (closed)210 / 215
History coverage41d
Avg bet$194
Trades / day16.2
Drawdown2%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 210 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 21? No 100¢ 100¢ $300 $300 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 35°C or higher on June 21? No 100¢ 100¢ $88 $88 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on June 21? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $88 $88 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 34°C on June 21? No 100¢ 100¢ $74 $74 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 21? No 100¢ 100¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 20? Jun 21 $63 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C on June 20? Jun 21 $239 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on June 20? Jun 21 $279 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on Ju Jun 21 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 20? Jun 20 $8 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 20? Jun 20 $16 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 38°C on June 20? Jun 20 $272 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 39°C or higher on June 20? Jun 20 $137 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 20? Jun 20 $52 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 20? Jun 20 $9 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 37°C on June 20? Jun 20 $186 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 19? Jun 20 $300 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 28°C or higher on June Jun 20 $114 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C on June 19? Jun 20 $44 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 19? Jun 20 $200 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju Jun 20 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on June 19? Jun 19 $500 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 19? Jun 19 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 19? Jun 19 $45 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C on June 19? Jun 19 $31 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 19? Jun 19 $101 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on June 18? Jun 18 $390 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 35°C on June 18? Jun 18 $88 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 18? Jun 18 $52 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 32°C on June 18? Jun 18 $148 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 18 $678 +$1 +0%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 17? Jun 17 $209 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 35°C or higher on June Jun 17 $200 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 37°C on June 17? Jun 17 $44 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 17? Jun 17 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on June 17? Jun 17 $126 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on June 16? Jun 17 $125 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 17 $8 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju Jun 17 $98 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 16? Jun 17 $200 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on June 16? Jun 17 $168 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $200 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $394 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $83 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ju Jun 16 $584 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 16 $92 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C or higher on June 15? Jun 15 $150 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 15? Jun 15 $500 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 15? Jun 15 $22 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 15 $19 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June Jun 15 $350 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on June 14? Jun 15 $132 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on June 14? Jun 15 $174 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on June 21? BUY Yes 100¢ $88 26m
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $25 31m
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 34°C on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $10 32m
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 34°C on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $10 37m
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 34°C on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $10 42m
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 34°C on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $13 44m
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 35°C or higher on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $30 45m
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 34°C on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $30 45m
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 35°C or higher on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $22 45m
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 35°C or higher on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $36 46m
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $52 1h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $243 1h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on Ju BUY No 100¢ $64 8h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on Ju BUY No 100¢ $5 8h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on Ju BUY No 100¢ $31 8h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $79 8h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $200 8h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $10 8h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $28 8h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 20? BUY Yes 100¢ $42 8h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $200 8h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 20? BUY Yes 100¢ $21 8h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $8 23h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 20? BUY Yes 100¢ $16 23h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $9 24h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 20? BUY Yes 100¢ $2 24h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 20? BUY Yes 100¢ $50 24h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 37°C on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $66 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $575.13 · official $575.13 (match) · 865 history records