Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T07:58:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
66 0x66d7…5b7b crypto 271 markets active 4d ago coverage 368d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$48,096 (-12%) realized −$31,112 · open −$16,984
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate32%83W / 175L
Whale WR38%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,495per market
Trades / day4.9pace
Fees−$32est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$14,560now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$2,200
14 days−$3,163
30 days+$10,266
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 63% −$30,565
world 35% −$16,542
other 2% −$2,287
sports 0% +$540
finance 0% +$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-4.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -89.3% -90.3% 0% 0% -96.7%
≤30d 39 +140.3% +117.4% 41% 41% +29.9%
≤90d 105 +41.8% +28.3% 40% 40% +16.6%
all 258 +5.7% -4.4% 32% 32% -17.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.4% 32% -17.3%
10% -13.5% 32% -25.2%
15% -21.9% 31% -32.4%
20% -29.5% 30% -39.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +29% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 38% (≥$1,614) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -9% → late +20% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
6.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$2,374 vs −$1,308 · ×1.82 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

368d coverage
Net worth$14,560
Realized−$31,112
Unrealized−$16,984
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses83 / 175
Whale WR (big bets)38%
Est. fees paid−$32
Open positions13
Markets (closed)258 / 271
History coverage368d
Avg bet$1,495
Trades / day4.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 258 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Yes 23¢ 10¢ $10,250 $4,164 −$6,086 (-59%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026? Yes 21¢ 17¢ $4,136 $3,330 −$806 (-19%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Yes 27¢ 24¢ $1,951 $1,741 −$210 (-11%)
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 20¢ 12¢ $2,617 $1,591 −$1,025 (-39%)
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 31¢ 20¢ $2,054 $1,292 −$762 (-37%)
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 36¢ 26¢ $1,687 $1,235 −$453 (-27%)
Iran leadership change by December 31? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $847 $825 −$22 (-3%)
Will Hamas agree to disarm by June 30? Yes 7¢ 1¢ $1,701 $159 −$1,541 (-91%)
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 32¢ 12¢ $195 $77 −$119 (-61%)
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? Yes 25¢ 0¢ $2,864 $51 −$2,813 (-98%)
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? Yes 36¢ 0¢ $2,498 $35 −$2,463 (-99%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $705 $30 −$674 (-96%)
Will Together win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? Yes 31¢ 22¢ $40 $29 −$11 (-27%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 162 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? Jun 25 $93 −$91 -98%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $128 −$45 -36%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 25? Jun 24 $370 −$347 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 25? Jun 24 $612 −$577 -94%
Ecuador vs. Germany: Neither team to score first? Jun 24 $62 −$60 -97%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 24 $1,095 −$1,080 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $1,024 −$1,015 -99%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $1,522 +$728 +48%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Neither team to score first? Jun 18 $200 −$195 -98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $645 −$630 -98%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $120 −$117 -98%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $133 +$317 +238%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Neither team to score first? Jun 15 $51 −$50 -97%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $450 −$440 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $286 +$714 +250%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? Jun 15 $3,254 +$2,085 +64%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $194 −$190 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Neither team to score first? Jun 14 $46 −$45 -97%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $133 +$367 +276%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $87 −$85 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Neither team to score first? Jun 13 $51 −$50 -97%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $1,515 +$3,822 +252%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $2,694 −$2,582 -96%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $505 +$220 +44%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 11 $255 −$250 -98%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 10 $950 −$50 -5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 10? Jun 09 $1,459 −$1,382 -95%
Iran closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 08 $1,257 +$2,504 +199%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 6? Jun 05 $359 +$827 +231%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $365 +$1,133 +310%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $268 +$1,511 +564%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $390 −$372 -95%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 3? Jun 03 $19 +$380 +1958%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 3? Jun 03 $246 +$786 +319%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 3? Jun 03 $1,535 +$5,215 +340%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 3? Jun 03 $1,202 −$1,137 -95%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $106 +$553 +522%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $3 +$97 +3501%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET May 30 $205 −$202 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET May 28 $251 −$245 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET May 28 $105 +$95 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET May 28 $104 −$100 -97%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 29? May 28 $338 −$317 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 29? May 28 $630 −$599 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET May 26 $244 −$238 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET May 26 $136 +$164 +121%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET May 26 $103 −$100 -97%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 25? May 24 $678 −$646 -95%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 25? May 24 $266 −$249 -94%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 24 $19 −$8 -41%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $93 4d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 17¢ $82 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 25? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 25? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 25? BUY Yes 3¢ $240 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 25? BUY Yes 2¢ $129 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 25? BUY Yes 13¢ $345 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 25? BUY Yes 12¢ $4 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 25? BUY Yes 12¢ $264 4d
Ecuador vs. Germany: Neither team to score first? BUY Yes 6¢ $62 4d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 25¢ $128 4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 54¢ $1,095 4d
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? BUY Yes 34¢ $374 7d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $1,024 7d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $507 8d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $1,015 8d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Neither team to score first? BUY Yes 13¢ $200 10d
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? BUY Yes 28¢ $921 10d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 18¢ $184 11d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $120 11d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 18¢ $461 11d
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 34¢ $1,067 12d
Will Hamas agree to disarm by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $12 12d
Will Hamas agree to disarm by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $8 12d
Iran leadership change by December 31? BUY Yes 16¢ $774 13d
Iran leadership change by December 31? BUY Yes 15¢ $73 13d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Neither team to score first? BUY Yes 10¢ $51 13d
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 44¢ $254 13d
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 43¢ $45 13d
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 34¢ $296 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $14,560.12 · official $14,563.63 (match) · 2159 history records