Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T08:55:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
66 0x66d6…b274 crypto 1163 markets active 1h ago coverage 43d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 42d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$56 (-5%) realized −$56 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip
Net edge-37%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate38%505W / 824L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day27.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$310
7 days−$310
14 days−$310
30 days−$354
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$65
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-25.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 220 -78.5% -80.5% 9% 9% -87.7%
≤30d 855 -26.6% -33.6% 28% 28% -40.6%
≤90d 1329 -17.9% -25.7% 38% 38% -30.9%
all 1329 -17.9% -25.7% 38% 38% -30.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover27.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -25.7% 38% -30.9%
10% ← realistic here -32.8% 35% -37.5%
15% -39.3% 29% -43.6%
20% -45.3% 21% -49.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -24% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -31% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.02 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

43d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized−$56
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses505 / 824
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1329 / 1163
History coverage43d ⚠
Avg bet$1
Trades / day27.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1329 Trades
no open positions (464 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$2 +244%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$2 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$4 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$2 -202%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$2 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$2 -204%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 15¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 14¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 13¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 13¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Up 15¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $1 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $1 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $1 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 16¢ $1 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $1 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $1 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $1 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Up 16¢ $1 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 19¢ $1 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $1 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $1 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $1 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $1 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $1 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $1 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $1 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Down 16¢ $1 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $1 27h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.76 · official $3.76 (match) · 3500 history records