Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T10:40:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
66 0x66d3…7bad weather 136 markets active 1h ago coverage 41d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$164 (-9%) realized −$160 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate22%29W / 102L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day13.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$13now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$28
7 days−$165
14 days−$180
30 days−$161
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 71% −$102
weather 28% −$60
other 0% −$1
politics 0% $0
sports 0% −$2
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-18.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 85 -31.8% -38.3% 12% 7% -26.0%
≤30d 130 -10.0% -18.6% 22% 15% -17.8%
≤90d 131 -9.8% -18.4% 22% 15% -17.8%
all 131 -9.8% -18.4% 22% 15% -17.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.4% 15% -17.8%
10% -26.2% 13% -25.7%
15% -33.3% 9% -32.8%
20% -39.9% 8% -39.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
28% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +28% → late -47% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$3 · ×1.44 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.41 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

41d coverage
Net worth$13
Realized−$160
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses29 / 102
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions5
Markets (closed)131 / 136
History coverage41d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day13.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 131 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 18? Yes 30¢ 34¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+15%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June 17? No 49¢ 50¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+3%)
Will global temperature increase by between 1.15ºC and 1.19ºC in June 2026? Yes 70¢ 67¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Will there be more than 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from June 15 - 21? Yes 81¢ 68¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-16%)
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? Yes 69¢ 4¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-94%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on Jun Jun 17 $7 −$3 -49%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on Ju Jun 17 $9 −$1 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 90-91°F on June 16? Jun 17 $8 −$1 -14%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on June 16? Jun 17 $7 −$1 -8%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 17? Jun 16 $8 −$4 -55%
Will a dozen eggs cost between $2.00–$2.25 in June? Jun 16 $1 $0 -41%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 16 $5 −$2 -45%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 60-61°F on Jun Jun 16 $3 −$2 -70%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 78-79°F on June 15? Jun 16 $6 $0 -5%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on Ju Jun 16 $7 $0 -3%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 15°C on June 16? Jun 16 $19 −$7 -36%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on June 15? Jun 16 $9 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 16? Jun 15 $5 −$1 -11%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 16? Jun 15 $3 −$2 -60%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on June 16? Jun 15 $3 −$1 -44%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 15 $5 −$2 -48%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 80-81°F on June 15? Jun 15 $2 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $5 +$1 +17%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on June 15? Jun 15 $3 −$1 -56%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on June 14? Jun 15 $7 −$1 -11%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 14? Jun 15 $3 +$5 +186%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 13? Jun 15 $11 −$3 -24%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 14? Jun 15 $16 +$1 +3%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 13? Jun 15 $7 −$2 -27%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 15? Jun 14 $2 −$1 -68%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by December 31? Jun 14 $1 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 14? Jun 14 $4 +$2 +53%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on June 14? Jun 14 $9 −$1 -8%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 14? Jun 14 $4 $0 -11%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on Jun Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on June 13? Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 14? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -75%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on June 13? Jun 14 $9 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 14? Jun 14 $3 −$2 -83%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 12°C on June 14? Jun 14 $4 +$2 +46%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 13? Jun 13 $10 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June Jun 13 $4 $0 +4%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 13? Jun 12 $2 −$1 -44%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on June 12? Jun 12 $5 −$2 -30%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 12? Jun 12 $4 +$1 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 90-91°F on June 12? Jun 12 $5 $0 -7%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 12? Jun 12 $3 −$1 -37%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 12? Jun 12 $4 $0 -8%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 12? Jun 12 $4 −$2 -46%
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Novak Djokovic Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 8? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 8? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 27°C on June 2? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 15°C on June 1? Jun 11 $0 $0 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on Jun SELL No 4¢ $0 1h
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on Jun BUY No 20¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June BUY No 49¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June BUY No 49¢ $2 2h
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on Jun SELL No 30¢ $3 2h
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on Jun BUY No 46¢ $2 2h
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on Jun BUY No 46¢ $3 2h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 18? BUY Yes 30¢ $2 13h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 18? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 13h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 18? BUY Yes 30¢ $3 13h
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 17? SELL No 20¢ $3 15h
Will global temperature increase by between 1.15ºC and 1.19ºC in June BUY Yes 70¢ $1 16h
Will there be more than 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher world BUY Yes 81¢ $1 17h
Will a dozen eggs cost between $2.00–$2.25 in June? SELL No 35¢ $0 17h
Will a dozen eggs cost between $2.00–$2.25 in June? BUY No 56¢ $1 17h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June SELL No 28¢ $1 17h
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 60-61°F on Jun SELL No 0¢ $0 17h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June SELL No 23¢ $1 19h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on Ju BUY No 95¢ $8 24h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on Ju BUY Yes 11¢ $1 24h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 90-91°F on June 16? BUY No 61¢ $4 25h
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 60-61°F on Jun SELL No 17¢ $1 25h
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on June 16? BUY No 95¢ $6 25h
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on June 16? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 25h
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 60-61°F on Jun BUY No 31¢ $3 25h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June BUY No 44¢ $5 26h
Will the lowest temperature in London be 15°C on June 16? SELL No 1¢ $0 28h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 90-91°F on June 16? BUY Yes 41¢ $4 29h
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 17? BUY No 43¢ $4 29h
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 17? BUY No 43¢ $4 29h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $13.32 · official $13.32 (match) · 630 history records