Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T05:08:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
66 0x66d1…6190 crypto 204 markets active 1h ago coverage 28d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$454 (-8%) realized −$454 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate34%70W / 134L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day18.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$174
7 days−$347
14 days−$347
30 days−$884
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$884
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-28.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 70 -15.2% -23.3% 20% 19% -33.5%
≤30d 204 -20.6% -28.1% 34% 29% -25.4%
≤90d 204 -20.6% -28.1% 34% 29% -25.4%
all 204 -20.6% -28.1% 34% 29% -25.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -28.1% 29% -25.4%
10% -35.0% 22% -32.6%
15% -41.3% 17% -39.1%
20% -47.0% 16% -45.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -21% → late -20% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$15 · ×1.08 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.56 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

28d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$454
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses70 / 134
Open positions0
Markets (closed)204 / 204
History coverage28d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day18.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 204 Trades
no open positions (85 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 15 $101 −$96 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 15 $24 +$4 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 15 $144 +$12 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 15 $89 +$6 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 15 $53 −$50 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 15 $105 +$63 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 15 $65 +$88 +135%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 15 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 15 $9 −$8 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +102%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 15 $74 −$16 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 15 $54 +$42 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 14 $81 −$5 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 14 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 14 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 14 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 14 $21 −$20 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 14 $32 +$28 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 14 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 14 $54 +$24 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 14 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 14 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 14 $21 +$91 +428%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 14 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 14 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 14 $34 −$34 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 14 $37 −$37 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 14 $37 −$35 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 14 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 14 $6 +$53 +873%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 14 $6 −$6 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 14 $16 +$4 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 14 $8 −$7 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 14 $20 −$19 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 14 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 19¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET SELL Up 38¢ $28 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $24 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $48 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET SELL Up 54¢ $145 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $96 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET SELL Up 59¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET SELL Up 35¢ $95 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $84 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $53 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET SELL Up 66¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET SELL Up 46¢ $168 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET SELL Up 65¢ $153 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $65 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $9 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET SELL Up 3¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 17¢ $21 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET SELL Up 19¢ $51 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $53 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET SELL Up 17¢ $24 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 578 history records