Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:03:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
66 0x66d0…c55a crypto 25 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ bot/MM pace (378 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$172 (-1%) realized −$78 · open −$94
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate62%10W / 6L
Drawdown86%max
Avg bet$861per market
Trades / day378.0pace
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$5,834now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 73% +$858
other 25% −$72
world 2% −$29
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (378 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-14.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -5.8% -14.8% 62% 25% -4.5%
≤30d 16 -5.8% -14.8% 62% 25% -4.5%
≤90d 16 -5.8% -14.8% 62% 25% -4.5%
all 16 -5.8% -14.8% 62% 25% -4.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover378.0 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.8% 25% -4.5%
10% -22.9% 12% -13.7%
15% ← realistic here -30.4% 6% -22.0%
20% -37.2% 0% -29.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 51% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
60% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
14.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$189 vs −$173 · ×1.09 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.82 per $1 lost it wins $1.82
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$5,834
Realized−$78
Unrealized−$94
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses10 / 6
Open positions9
Markets (closed)16 / 25
History coverage1d
Avg bet$861
Trades / day378.0
Drawdown86%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 16 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 77¢ 76¢ $2,600 $2,583 −$17 (-1%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 11¢ $865 $817 −$48 (-6%)
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 58¢ 57¢ $750 $744 −$6 (-1%)
Will South America (CONMEBOL) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 19¢ 20¢ $500 $513 +$13 (+3%)
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30? No 33¢ 31¢ $500 $471 −$29 (-6%)
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Yes 55¢ 54¢ $357 $351 −$6 (-2%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Up 85¢ 42¢ $215 $105 −$110 (-51%)
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? Yes 32¢ 32¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Yes 20¢ 19¢ $100 $95 −$5 (-5%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Down 52¢ 58¢ $50 $57 +$7 (+13%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 17 $942 +$91 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 17 $1,528 +$132 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 17 $1,610 −$14 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 17 $1,767 +$242 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 17 $1,239 +$249 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 17 $227 +$17 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 17 $21 −$3 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 17 $887 −$865 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 17 $1,750 +$697 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 17 $1,149 +$267 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 17 $1,010 +$78 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 17 $704 +$36 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 17 $1,207 +$79 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 17 $553 −$84 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 17 $816 −$65 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $101 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $101 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $5 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $5 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $5 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $5 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $5 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $5 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $5 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET SELL Up 46¢ $4 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $5 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $5 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $5 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $5 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $5 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $5 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $5 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $1 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $100 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $100 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $100 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $100 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET SELL Down 88¢ $135 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $101 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $101 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $101 5m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,833.68 · official $5,833.68 (match) · 398 history records