Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T07:41:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
66 0x66ce…fca0 other 228 markets active 1h ago coverage 129d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$63 (-0%) realized −$63 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate5%11W / 216L
Whale WR7%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$220per market
Trades / day10.1pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$55now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$15
14 days−$23
30 days−$34
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% −$36
sports 22% −$18
politics 9% −$6
economics 7% −$4
crypto 6% −$5
culture 5% −$5
world 3% −$1
tech 1% −$1
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 68 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 176 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
all 227 -0.2% -9.7% 5% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 55% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 7% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×1.61 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.08 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

129d coverage
Net worth$55
Realized−$63
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses11 / 216
Whale WR (big bets)7%
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions1
Markets (closed)227 / 228
History coverage129d
Avg bet$220
Trades / day10.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 227 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 97¢ 97¢ $55 $55 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 19 $338 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $201 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 18 $293 −$1 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 18 $382 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 18 $310 −$1 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 18 $651 −$1 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 17 $394 −$1 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 17 $427 +$2 +0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $213 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $502 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $525 −$1 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 17 $231 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $468 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 16 $124 $0 -0%
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 16 $154 $0 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $221 $0 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $361 −$1 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $144 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $473 −$1 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 15 $616 −$1 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $419 −$1 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $190 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $394 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $276 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $58 $0 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $429 −$1 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $536 −$1 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 12 $59 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $409 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 12 $500 −$1 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 11 $241 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $459 −$1 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 10 $696 $0 +0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 10 $229 $0 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 10 $61 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $143 $0 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 09 $466 −$1 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 09 $567 −$1 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 08 $204 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 07 $62 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 07 $419 $0 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 06 $265 $0 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 06 $211 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 06 $62 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 05 $1,039 −$2 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 05 $277 $0 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 05 $214 $0 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 04 $371 −$1 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 04 $127 $0 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 04 $332 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $55 1h
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $55 1h
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $55 4h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $55 5h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $55 7h
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $55 8h
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $55 9h
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $55 14h
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $55 16h
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? SELL No 100¢ $55 23h
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? BUY No 100¢ $55 25h
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $55 27h
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $55 28h
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $56 36h
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $56 37h
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $56 40h
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $56 42h
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $56 42h
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $56 44h
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $56 46h
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $56 47h
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $56 2d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $56 2d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $56 2d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $56 2d
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $22 2d
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $34 2d
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $56 2d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $56 2d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $56 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $54.89 · official $54.89 (match) · 1351 history records