Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T03:23:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
66 0x66cb…f219 politics 134 markets active 0h ago coverage 147d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$25 (-0%) realized −$24 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate25%33W / 100L
Whale WR3%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$704per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$670now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$5
14 days−$18
30 days−$36
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 44% −$51
other 33% −$192
sports 8% +$212
world 7% −$5
culture 3% −$4
crypto 2% $0
tech 1% −$1
economics 1% $0
finance 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-13.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 26 -0.1% -9.6% 4% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 73 -16.5% -24.5% 5% 0% -10.8%
all 133 -4.4% -13.5% 25% 8% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.5% 8% -9.6%
10% -21.8% 8% -18.2%
15% -29.4% 5% -26.1%
20% -36.3% 5% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 75% · top 2 85% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
70% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 3% (≥$1,123) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +9% → late -18% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$30 vs −$11 · ×2.86 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

147d coverage
Net worth$670
Realized−$24
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses33 / 100
Whale WR (big bets)3%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)133 / 134
History coverage147d
Avg bet$704
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 133 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $671 $670 −$1 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 20 $205 $0 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 18 $1,090 −$2 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 18 $368 −$1 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 14 $767 −$1 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 14 $1,136 −$2 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 13 $1,096 −$2 -0%
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi Jun 12 $1,030 −$1 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $1,208 −$1 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 11 $2,165 −$3 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 11 $1,144 −$2 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 07 $1,019 −$2 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 06 $1,042 −$1 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 03 $1,072 −$1 -0%
Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 03 $910 −$1 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 03 $990 −$1 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 02 $877 −$1 -0%
Will Solana dip to $60 in May? Jun 02 $498 $0 +0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 31 $711 −$1 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 31 $722 −$1 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 28 $751 −$1 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 27 $722 −$1 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 26 $1,522 −$2 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 24 $3,688 −$4 -0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 23 $1,149 −$2 -0%
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 23 $834 −$1 -0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? May 23 $1,270 −$2 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in May? May 19 $638 −$2 -0%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 09 $1,276 −$1 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 09 $1,257 −$2 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 08 $1,853 −$3 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 08 $1,287 −$2 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 08 $1,266 −$2 -0%
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? May 07 $1,264 −$2 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 06 $1,651 −$2 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 06 $1,153 −$2 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 May 05 $1,244 −$2 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 02 $1,529 −$2 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 02 $1,012 −$2 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April? May 02 $270 +$1 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,400 in April? May 02 $298 +$1 +0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? Apr 30 $601 −$1 -0%
Will Kang Hoon-sik win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 27 $494 $0 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 22 $2,178 −$2 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 20 $1,392 −$1 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 19 $1,798 −$2 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 18 $1,049 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $829 −$1 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 15 $1,054 −$1 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 15 $869 −$1 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 14 $1,676 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $204 12m
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $205 1h
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $326 41h
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $326 42h
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $368 2d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $368 2d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $671 2d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $766 5d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $767 5d
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $1,134 6d
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,136 6d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,095 7d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,096 7d
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi SELL No 100¢ $1,029 7d
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi BUY No 100¢ $1,030 7d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,006 7d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,007 7d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $982 8d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $984 8d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,142 8d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,144 9d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,017 12d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,019 12d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,040 13d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,042 13d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,070 16d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,072 16d
Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $909 16d
Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $910 16d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $989 17d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $670.27 · official $670.27 (match) · 407 history records