Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T14:46:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
66 0x66ca…0db6 crypto 1292 markets active 1h ago coverage 544d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ Covers last 543d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$3,813 (+1%) realized +$3,504 · open +$309
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate97%1193W / 34L
Whale WR98%big bets
Drawdown6%max
Avg bet$238per market
Trades / day4.2pace
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$18,800now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$7
7 days+$8
14 days+$20
30 days+$236
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 81% +$2,857
other 11% +$593
tech 6% +$174
finance 2% +$122
economics 0% +$23
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-8.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +0.8% -8.8% 100% 0% -8.6%
≤30d 95 +1.1% -8.5% 100% 1% -8.6%
≤90d 453 +0.7% -8.9% 99% 1% -8.9%
all 1227 +1.0% -8.7% 97% 2% -8.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.7% 2% -8.4%
10% -17.4% 1% -17.2%
15% -25.4% 1% -25.2%
20% -32.7% 1% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
98% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 98% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$21 · ×0.17 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×6.08 per $1 lost it wins $6.08
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

544d coverage
Net worth$18,800
Realized+$3,504
Unrealized+$309
Win rate (resolved)97%
Wins / losses1193 / 34
Whale WR (big bets)98%
Open positions65
Markets (closed)1227 / 1292
History coverage544d ⚠
Avg bet$238
Trades / day4.2
Drawdown6%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 65 History 1227 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in June? No 99¢ 100¢ $1,086 $1,098 +$12 (+1%)
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in June? No 99¢ 100¢ $1,055 $1,068 +$13 (+1%)
Will Ethereum reach $6,000 by December 31, 2026? No 92¢ 94¢ $920 $945 +$25 (+3%)
Will Ethereum reach $2,700 in June? No 99¢ 100¢ $860 $867 +$7 (+1%)
Will Ethereum reach $5,000 by December 31, 2026? No 93¢ 94¢ $804 $813 +$10 (+1%)
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in June? No 98¢ 100¢ $608 $618 +$10 (+2%)
Bitcoin all time high by June 30, 2026? No 96¢ 100¢ $574 $598 +$25 (+4%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $12,000 by end of December? No 95¢ 96¢ $539 $543 +$5 (+1%)
Solana all time high by December 31, 2026? No 91¢ 95¢ $496 $520 +$24 (+5%)
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $170 by end of June? No 98¢ 100¢ $492 $499 +$7 (+1%)
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2026? No 91¢ 94¢ $455 $472 +$18 (+4%)
Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2026? No 92¢ 94¢ $460 $472 +$12 (+3%)
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? No 98¢ 100¢ $442 $450 +$7 (+2%)
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $45 by end of June? No 97¢ 99¢ $399 $409 +$10 (+2%)
Will Solana reach $130 in June? No 99¢ 100¢ $396 $399 +$4 (+1%)
Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in June? No 99¢ 100¢ $394 $399 +$4 (+1%)
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $264 in June? No 99¢ 99¢ $395 $397 +$3 (+1%)
Will BNB reach $1500 by December 31, 2026? No 91¢ 92¢ $385 $391 +$6 (+2%)
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? No 98¢ 100¢ $295 $300 +$5 (+2%)
Will Ethereum reach $2,500 in June? No 99¢ 100¢ $297 $299 +$2 (+1%)
Will Gold (GC) settle over $6,200 on the final trading day of June 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $298 $299 +$0 (+0%)
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $299 $299 −$0 (-0%)
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,300 (LOW) in June? No 97¢ 99¢ $291 $298 +$7 (+3%)
Will Solana reach $200 by December 31, 2026? No 93¢ 94¢ $279 $280 +$2 (+1%)
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,000 (LOW) in June? No 99¢ 100¢ $270 $273 +$3 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in June? Jun 23 $429 +$5 +1%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $8,500 by end of June? Jun 23 $192 +$3 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 19? Jun 19 $99 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 15? Jun 15 $66 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,300 on June 15? Jun 15 $191 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $249 +$1 +0%
Will Solana reach $90 June 8-14? Jun 15 $231 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $40 June 8-14? Jun 15 $100 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $72,000 June 8-14? Jun 15 $20 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $74,000 June 8-14? Jun 15 $615 +$5 +1%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 June 8-14? Jun 15 $80 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $100 June 8-14? Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,100 June 8-14? Jun 15 $199 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close at $235-$240 on the final day of trading of t Jun 12 $109 +$1 +0%
Will Meta (META) close at >$670 on the final day of trading of the wee Jun 12 $77 +$2 +2%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close at >$240 on the final day of trading of the w Jun 12 $15 $0 +1%
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close at >$470 on the final day of trading of th Jun 12 $26 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $47 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $299 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $299 +$1 +0%
Will Solana reach $120 June 1-7? Jun 08 $131 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 June 1-7? Jun 08 $517 +$1 +0%
Will Solana dip to $40 June 1-7? Jun 08 $100 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 June 1-7? Jun 08 $199 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $136 +$1 +1%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 Week of June 1 2026? Jun 05 $199 +$1 +0%
Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (HIGH) $690 Week of June 1 2026? Jun 05 $20 $0 +1%
Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (HIGH) $700 Week of June 1 2026? Jun 05 $20 $0 +1%
Will the price of Solana be above $110 on June 5? Jun 05 $60 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on June 4? Jun 04 $299 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $82,000 and $84,000 on June 3? Jun 03 $399 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $100 on June 3? Jun 03 $289 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on June 3? Jun 03 $119 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on June 3? Jun 03 $299 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $84,000 on June 3? Jun 03 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on June 3? Jun 03 $199 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 3? Jun 03 $100 $0 +0%
Will Meta (META) close above $650 on June 2? Jun 02 $44 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $102 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $199 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $199 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on June 2? Jun 02 $200 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $100 on June 2? Jun 02 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 2? Jun 02 $26 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on June 2? Jun 02 $200 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on June 1? Jun 02 $100 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $77,000 on June 1? Jun 02 $299 +$1 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,700 May 25-31? Jun 01 $29 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,300 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $97 1h
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,200 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $137 1h
Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (HIGH) $640 Week of June 22 2026? BUY No 98¢ $117 1h
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $810 in June? BUY No 100¢ $18 1h
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $800 in June? BUY No 100¢ $100 1h
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $790 in June? BUY No 99¢ $25 1h
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $775 Week of June 22 2026? BUY No 99¢ $62 1h
Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (HIGH) $480 in June? BUY No 100¢ $198 1h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on BUY No 92¢ $93 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in June? SELL No 100¢ $434 1h
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $8,500 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $195 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $299 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in June? BUY No 99¢ $178 6d
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $510 end of June? BUY No 99¢ $147 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 19? BUY No 99¢ $99 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $100 7d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in June? BUY No 99¢ $166 7d
Will Solana reach $130 in June? BUY No 99¢ $99 7d
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in June? BUY No 99¢ $199 8d
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in June? BUY No 99¢ $199 8d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in June? BUY No 99¢ $198 8d
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? BUY No 99¢ $199 8d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $66 10d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $249 10d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,300 on June 15? BUY Yes 100¢ $191 10d
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $264 in June? BUY No 99¢ $99 10d
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $264 in June? BUY No 99¢ $99 10d
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in June? BUY No 100¢ $199 10d
Will Bitcoin dip to $5,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $192 11d
Will Solana dip to $40 June 8-14? BUY No 100¢ $100 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $18,800.46 · official $18,800.06 (match) · 3468 history records