Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T08:52:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
66 0x66ca…3637 crypto 1514 markets active 0h ago coverage 28d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 28d only
✗ bot/MM pace (69 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$48 (-0%) realized −$51 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate89%1342W / 162L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day68.7pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$35now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$85
7 days−$286
14 days−$296
30 days−$253
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 62% −$76
other 33% +$84
sports 3% −$259
weather 1% −$14
world 1% +$13
tech 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (69 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 544 -3.4% -12.6% 82% 39% -13.4%
≤30d 1504 -1.3% -10.7% 89% 23% -10.9%
≤90d 1504 -1.3% -10.7% 89% 23% -10.9%
all 1504 -1.3% -10.7% 89% 23% -10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover68.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.7% 23% -10.9%
10% ← realistic here -19.2% 11% -19.4%
15% -27.0% 5% -27.2%
20% -34.2% 2% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
73% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$9 · ×0.1 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

28d coverage
Net worth$35
Realized−$51
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)89%
Wins / losses1342 / 162
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions10
Markets (closed)1504 / 1514
History coverage28d ⚠
Avg bet$11
Trades / day68.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 1504 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $3 $5 +$2 (+71%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Yes 62¢ 62¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $3 $4 +$2 (+50%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+41%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+4%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-6%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-14%)
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-29%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 15¢ 12¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-24%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 15 $9 $0 +2%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 15 $24 $0 +1%
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 +2%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 15, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 15 $40 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$2 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 15 $4 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$2 +41%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 15 $4 $0 +4%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 15 $12 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +1%
Will Russia enter Novyi Donbas by June 30? Jun 15 $5 $0 -4%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +29%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 15 $24 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +18%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 15 $24 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $9 22m
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 67¢ $5 34m
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $5 35m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $24 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 15¢ $1 2h
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $6 3h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 15, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $16 3h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 15, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $24 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $2 5h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $12 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $2 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $2 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $2 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $2 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $2 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $2 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $2 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $2 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $2 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $35.19 · official $35.19 (match) · 3500 history records