Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T01:29:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
66 0x66c5…96be crypto 31 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Total PnL −$51 (-33%) realized −$74 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -46% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -59% what you keep after slip
Net edge-59%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate26%8W / 23L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day98.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$74
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-51.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 -46.2% -51.3% 26% 23% -54.8%
≤30d 31 -46.2% -51.3% 26% 23% -54.8%
≤90d 31 -46.2% -51.3% 26% 23% -54.8%
all 31 -46.2% -51.3% 26% 23% -54.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover98.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -51.3% 23% -54.8%
10% ← realistic here -56.0% 23% -59.1%
15% -60.2% 23% -63.1%
20% -64.1% 19% -66.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 51% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -52% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -46% · $-wt -52% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -57% → late -36% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$4 · ×0.77 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.27 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$74
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses8 / 23
Open positions0
Markets (closed)31 / 31
History coverage1d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day98.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 31 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Down 48¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Down 11¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Down 70¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Up 9¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Down 53¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Down 16¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Up 36¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Down 3¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Down 12¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Up 46¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Up 12¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Down 15¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Up 10¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Down 15¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Up 10¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Down 3¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Up 28¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Up 43¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Down 20¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Up 7¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 15 $11 −$1 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 15 $6 +$6 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$2 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$4 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$1 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$3 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 14 $16 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 14 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 14 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 14 $6 +$8 +128%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$2 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$2 +116%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 14 $11 −$8 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET SELL Down 76¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET SELL Up 41¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET SELL Up 88¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Down 14¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET SELL Up 77¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET SELL Up 23¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 102 history records