Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T03:55:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
66 0x66c3…6d25 crypto 109 markets active 1h ago coverage 632d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$28 (+0%) realized +$28 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate66%71W / 37L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$69per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$124
7 days+$196
14 days+$204
30 days+$207
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 39% +$34
crypto 26% +$57
sports 19% +$199
politics 11% −$253
world 5% +$25
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-7.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 37 -1.7% -11.1% 62% 35% -3.9%
≤30d 42 +6.9% -3.3% 64% 38% -3.7%
≤90d 82 -2.7% -12.0% 67% 39% -5.4%
all 108 +2.4% -7.4% 66% 43% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.4% 43% -8.8%
10% -16.2% 25% -17.5%
15% -24.3% 17% -25.5%
20% -31.7% 10% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
35% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$17 · ×0.57 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.1 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

632d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$28
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses71 / 37
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions0
Markets (closed)108 / 109
History coverage632d
Avg bet$69
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 108 Trades
no open positions (7 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-1 Jun 20 $10 +$19 +184%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $181 +$15 +8%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $25 +$2 +8%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $121 +$8 +6%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $330 +$26 +8%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $427 +$7 +2%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $110 +$12 +11%
Spread: Canada (-5.5) Jun 19 $426 −$3 -1%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $20 +$3 +15%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $352 +$40 +11%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $12 −$11 -95%
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 0 South Africa? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 0 South Africa? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $247 +$11 +5%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $151 +$37 +24%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $51 −$39 -77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +14%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $4 −$3 -79%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $15 $0 +3%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $40 +$26 +64%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $40 +$12 +29%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $130 +$9 +7%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -91%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $23 −$17 -73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 15 $30 +$3 +10%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $60 +$8 +14%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$4 -79%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $51 +$72 +142%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $92 −$42 -46%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $135 +$11 +8%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 +$4 +362%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $15 +$7 +49%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 +$5 +52%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $15 −$9 -58%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $20 +$9 +43%
Will Spain vs. Iraq end in a draw? Jun 04 $1 +$4 +390%
Will France win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET May 26 $27 +$3 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET May 26 $2 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET May 06 $6 +$1 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET May 06 $25 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET May 06 $4 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET May 06 $2 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET May 06 $29 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET May 06 $26 +$6 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET May 06 $27 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET May 06 $2 +$1 +32%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND BUY 21¢ $31 1h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 99¢ $120 1h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 95¢ $100 1h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 83¢ $13 1h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 18¢ $2 1h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 79¢ $24 1h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score SELL No 89¢ $5 1h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score SELL No 89¢ $5 1h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score SELL No 90¢ $10 1h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 54¢ $20 1h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 56¢ $7 1h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 40¢ $10 1h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 36¢ $9 1h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score BUY No 87¢ $10 1h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 33¢ $4 1h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 31¢ $4 1h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 29¢ $8 1h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 28¢ $7 1h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 27¢ $22 1h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 78¢ $5 1h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 17¢ $2 2h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score SELL No 79¢ $8 2h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 88¢ $18 2h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 12¢ $1 2h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score BUY No 72¢ $7 2h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score BUY No 77¢ $8 2h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 99¢ $129 2h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 95¢ $95 2h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 86¢ $9 3h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 87¢ $9 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $30.00 · 420 history records