Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T01:39:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
66 0x66c2…32a0 crypto 39 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$20 (+1%) realized +$9 · open +$11
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate66%25W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$57per market
Trades / day46.5pace
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$184now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 96% +$49
other 4% +$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 38 +0.1% -9.4% 66% 47% -7.5%
≤30d 38 +0.1% -9.4% 66% 47% -7.5%
≤90d 38 +0.1% -9.4% 66% 47% -7.5%
all 38 +0.1% -9.4% 66% 47% -7.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover46.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.4% 47% -7.5%
10% ← realistic here -18.1% 47% -16.3%
15% -26.0% 39% -24.4%
20% -33.3% 29% -31.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
28% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late +15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$15 · ×0.64 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.24 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$184
Realized+$9
Unrealized+$11
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses25 / 13
Open positions1
Markets (closed)38 / 39
History coverage2d
Avg bet$57
Trades / day46.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 38 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Up 83¢ 84¢ $166 $167 +$1 (+0%)
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Down 5¢ 16¢ $5 $16 +$11 (+230%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 17 $188 +$12 +6%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 17 $9 +$13 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 17 $16 +$6 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 17 $16 +$4 +23%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 17 $21 +$1 +7%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 16 $16 +$6 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 16 $11 +$9 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 16 $22 +$18 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 16 $20 +$20 +104%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 16 $16 −$16 -99%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 16 $12 +$8 +62%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 16 $34 −$14 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 16 $13 −$12 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 16 $11 +$11 +93%
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 16 $57 +$3 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 16 $12 −$12 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 16 $548 +$22 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 16 $14 +$6 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$10 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 16 $65 +$35 +53%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 16 $16 −$15 -98%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 16 $28 +$12 +42%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 16 $13 −$12 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 16 $13 +$7 +50%
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 16 $13 +$7 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 16 $40 −$39 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 16 $48 +$12 +25%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 16 $26 +$7 +26%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 9PM ET Jun 16 $25 −$24 -98%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 8PM ET Jun 16 $11 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$10 +105%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 16 $594 +$6 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 16 $40 −$18 -44%
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 15 $22 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 15 $9 −$9 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $0 0m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $2 0m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $0 0m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $0 0m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $0 0m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $0 0m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $1 0m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $0 0m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $89 0m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $80 2m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $94 10m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $95 10m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $9 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $16 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $16 49m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $21 57m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $16 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $1 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $10 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $12 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $10 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $7 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $13 17h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $16 17h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $12 18h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $20 18h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $14 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $10 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $13 18h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $11 18h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $183.50 · official $147.50 · 98 history records