Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T01:42:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
66 0x66c2…85f4 weather 100 markets active 1h ago coverage 85d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFading edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$1,309 (+16%) realized +$1,382 · open −$73
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -0% what you keep after slip
Net edge-0%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate32%29W / 61L
Drawdown44%max
Avg bet$83per market
Trades / day6.8pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$1,393now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$959
7 days−$959
14 days−$1,041
30 days+$718
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 77% +$1,673
weather 11% +$174
sports 5% −$235
other 3% −$51
crypto 3% −$196
world 1% +$14
finance 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)+3.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 51 -77.6% -79.8% 10% 10% -72.3%
≤30d 62 -54.8% -59.1% 19% 18% +0.9%
≤90d 90 +14.7% +3.8% 32% 29% +9.0%
all 90 +14.7% +3.8% 32% 29% +9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +3.8% 29% +9.0%
10% -6.2% 28% -1.4%
15% -15.2% 23% -11.0%
20% -23.5% 19% -19.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 52% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +22% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +15% · $-wt +22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +112% → late -83% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
5.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$99 vs −$23 · ×4.27 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.03 per $1 lost it wins $2.03
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

85d coverage
Net worth$1,393
Realized+$1,382
Unrealized−$73
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses29 / 61
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions9
Markets (closed)90 / 100
History coverage85d
Avg bet$83
Trades / day6.8
Drawdown44%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 90 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 1st in Bogotá in the second round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election? Yes 42¢ 42¢ $1,178 $1,178 −$0 (-0%)
Will Iván Cepeda Castro place 1st in Bogotá in the second round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election? No 52¢ 42¢ $134 $110 −$24 (-18%)
Will Pedri win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $50 $44 −$6 (-11%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $19 $17 −$2 (-9%)
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) IR Iran 26¢ 8¢ $50 $16 −$34 (-67%)
Will Gustavo Petro be charged in the US by June 30? Yes 2¢ 6¢ $5 $15 +$10 (+207%)
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Yes 55¢ 24¢ $10 $4 −$6 (-55%)
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score No 57¢ 24¢ $10 $4 −$6 (-57%)
Will voter turnout be 64%+ in the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 5¢ 2¢ $10 $3 −$7 (-67%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $10 −$3 -27%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $47 +$49 +104%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 16°C or higher on March 23? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 17°C on April 7? Jun 16 $14 −$14 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 44-45°F on April 7? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 76°F or higher on April 7? Jun 16 $14 −$14 -100%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 56-57°F on Ap Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on April 7? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 16°C on April 7? Jun 16 $19 −$19 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 16 $33 −$33 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on April 7? Jun 16 $17 −$17 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on April 7? Jun 16 $25 −$25 -100%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 55°F or below on Apri Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on April 7? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 16 $122 −$122 -100%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $10 +$3 +29%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $30 +$23 +74%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 25°C on April 20? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 80-81°F on Marc Jun 15 $14 −$14 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 24°C on April 20? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 70-71°F on April 20 Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 12°C on April 7? Jun 15 $45 −$35 -77%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on April 7? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on April 7? Jun 15 $54 −$24 -44%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 24°C on March 25? Jun 15 $14 −$14 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 48-49°F on March 24 Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on April 7? Jun 15 $19 −$6 -32%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 28°C on April 20? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on April 20? Jun 15 $6 −$5 -91%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 76-77°F on April 20 Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 10°C on April 7? Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on April 8? Jun 15 $48 −$48 -100%
Will Alex Pereira win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $89 −$89 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on April 20? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 58-59°F on Ap Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on April 20? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 46°F or higher on April 7? Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be 75°F or below on April 7? Jun 15 $35 −$34 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 15 $102 −$102 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 14°C on April 7? Jun 15 $53 −$48 -91%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on April 7? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 35°C or higher on April 9 Jun 15 $50 −$44 -87%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 58-59°F on Ap Jun 15 $13 −$13 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on April 7? Jun 15 $56 −$34 -61%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 14°C on April 7? Jun 15 $31 −$31 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 27°C on April 20? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 15 $208 −$208 -100%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $51 +$50 +99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 60¢ $7 30m
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) BUY IR Iran 26¢ $51 41m
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 100¢ $13 1h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 99¢ $53 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 55¢ $10 3h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score BUY No 57¢ $10 3h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 81¢ $10 3h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score BUY No 58¢ $10 3h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 77¢ $10 3h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 56¢ $30 3h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 31¢ $96 6h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 6h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 6h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $0 6h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $0 6h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 6h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $0 6h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 31¢ $5 7h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 AND Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY 16¢ $2 8h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 16¢ $34 10h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 20¢ $20 20h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 41¢ $102 20h
Will Alex Pereira win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 44¢ $34 21h
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main BUY Aiemann Zahabi 18¢ $51 22h
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main BUY Aiemann Zahabi 17¢ $51 22h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 99¢ $101 22h
Will Alex Pereira win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 44¢ $56 23h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $51 24h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 33¢ $66 28h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 23¢ $46 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,393.35 · official $1,393.35 (match) · 643 history records