Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T10:23:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
66 0x66c0…5fc2 sports 1203 markets active 0h ago coverage 98d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 98d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$475 (-0%) realized −$501 · open +$26
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate49%591W / 606L
Whale WR11%big bets
Drawdown29%max
Avg bet$353per market
Trades / day23.2pace
Fees−$274est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$128now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 98d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 92% +$4,033
sports 5% −$603
economics 2% +$19
crypto 0% −$312
other 0% +$75
world 0% −$5
finance 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-12.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 77 -18.6% -26.3% 34% 31% -11.5%
≤30d 396 +1.1% -8.6% 51% 50% -10.3%
≤90d 1168 -2.8% -12.1% 50% 49% -8.7%
all 1197 -2.7% -12.0% 49% 48% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.0% 48% -8.8%
10% ← realistic here -20.4% 48% -17.6%
15% -28.1% 46% -25.5%
20% -35.2% 41% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 35% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 11% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -4% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$16 · ×1.35 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.33 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

98d coverage
Net worth$128
Realized−$501
Unrealized+$26
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses591 / 606
Whale WR (big bets)11%
Est. fees paid−$274
Open positions5
Markets (closed)1197 / 1203
History coverage98d ⚠
Avg bet$353
Trades / day23.2
Drawdown29%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 1197 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Walczaki (BO3) - European Pro League Series 7 Playoffs Walczaki 63¢ 100¢ $20 $32 +$12 (+59%)
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs CYBERSHOKE Esports (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3: Closed Qualifier Playoffs FOKUS 56¢ 83¢ $20 $30 +$10 (+48%)
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs TDK (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoffs TDK 46¢ 60¢ $20 $26 +$6 (+29%)
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Aurora Gaming 41¢ 40¢ $22 $22 −$0 (-1%)
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoffs Gentle Mates 64¢ 60¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 20 $5,561 −$11 -0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 20 $616 −$6 -1%
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 20 $10,185 −$182 -2%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 20 $3,806 −$40 -1%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 20 $4,831 −$47 -1%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 20 $5,009 −$9 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 20 $103 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 20 $103 −$3 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 20 $156 −$55 -35%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 AND Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 20 $11 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 20 $208 +$52 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 20 $435 −$133 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 20 $209 −$99 -47%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 11.5 Jun 20 $22 −$22 -100%
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 20 $21 +$22 +101%
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 6.5 Jun 20 $25 +$21 +83%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 20 $20 +$26 +129%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 20 $23 +$33 +140%
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5 Jun 20 $39 −$9 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 19 $205 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 19 $104 −$56 -53%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 19 $2,352 −$3 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 19 $1,104 −$6 -1%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 7.5 Jun 19 $16 +$16 +97%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 1.5 AND Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $23 +$10 +44%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $15 +$12 +79%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs KOLESIE (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 P Jun 18 $13 +$5 +42%
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5) Jun 18 $19 +$10 +55%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 10.5 Jun 18 $11 +$12 +105%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $17 +$10 +57%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
HSBC Championships: Cameron Norrie vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Jun 16 $19 +$16 +83%
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet Jun 16 $17 +$16 +93%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 16 $35 −$1 -2%
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Nottingham 2: Felix Gill vs Hugo Gaston Jun 16 $9 −$9 -100%
HSBC Championships: Ignacio Buse vs Marcos Giron Jun 16 $25 −$25 -100%
HSBC Championships: Arthur Fery vs Toby Samuel Jun 16 $20 +$15 +76%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 8.5 Jun 16 $23 −$2 -7%
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 16 $47 −$8 -18%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 16 $12 −$12 -100%
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 8.5 Jun 16 $21 −$21 -100%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 9.5 Jun 16 $21 −$21 -100%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 7.5 Jun 16 $26 −$26 -100%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 8.5 Jun 16 $24 +$16 +65%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5 Jun 16 $24 +$21 +86%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 95¢ $8 6m
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 95¢ $1,092 15m
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 76¢ $610 25m
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 62¢ $1,085 26m
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 76¢ $1,210 27m
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 77¢ $616 31m
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 95¢ $1,102 33m
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 76¢ $485 36m
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 77¢ $1,716 48m
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 84¢ $2,236 51m
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 62¢ $1,117 51m
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 84¢ $2,264 52m
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 96¢ $3,024 53m
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 84¢ $1,500 1h
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 96¢ $1,976 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET SELL Down 59¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $103 1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 1.5 AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY 60¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET SELL Up 54¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET SELL Up 25¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET SELL Up 46¢ $49 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $52 1h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 AND Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? SELL 53¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET SELL Down 59¢ $260 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $208 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 16¢ $106 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET SELL Up 63¢ $123 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $4 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $127.88 · official $137.88 · 3500 history records