Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T23:04:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
66 0x66bf…07e8 sports 40 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted! high turnover
Total PnL −$51 (-6%) realized +$47 · open −$98
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate35%13W / 24L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day25.8pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 85% −$23
other 15% −$89
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-17.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 37 -8.5% -17.2% 35% 35% -11.3%
≤30d 37 -8.5% -17.2% 35% 35% -11.3%
≤90d 37 -8.5% -17.2% 35% 35% -11.3%
all 37 -8.5% -17.2% 35% 35% -11.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover25.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.2% 35% -11.3%
10% ← realistic here -25.2% 35% -19.7%
15% -32.4% 35% -27.5%
20% -39.0% 32% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -27% → late +9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$32 vs −$18 · ×1.79 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$47
Unrealized−$98
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses13 / 24
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions3
Markets (closed)37 / 40
History coverage2d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day25.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 37 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Over 52¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Germany vs. Paraguay: Germany O/U 1.5 Over 48¢ $28 $0 −$28 (-100%)
Germany vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Over 40¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 23 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Florian Wirtz: 1+ assists Jun 29 $9 +$23 +249%
Germany vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 29 $35 +$44 +126%
Deniz Undav: 1+ goals Jun 29 $24 −$24 -98%
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 29 $25 +$33 +128%
Brazil vs. Japan: Brazil O/U 1.5 Jun 29 $19 +$41 +213%
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance Jun 29 $25 +$30 +117%
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals Jun 29 $9 −$9 -98%
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 0.5 Jun 28 $24 +$26 +107%
South Africa vs. Canada: Canada O/U 1.5 Jun 28 $25 −$25 -98%
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 Jun 28 $31 −$30 -98%
Jonathan David: 1+ goals Jun 28 $14 −$14 -98%
Jonathan David: 2+ goals Jun 28 $4 −$4 -97%
Tajon Buchanan: 1+ assists Jun 28 $5 −$5 -98%
Spread: Shanghai Shenhua FC (-1.5) Jun 28 $25 −$25 -98%
Qingdao Xihaian FC vs. Zhejiang Zhiye FC: O/U 4.5 Jun 28 $24 −$24 -100%
Dalian Yingbo FC vs. Shanghai Shenhua FC: Draw at halftime? Jun 28 $9 −$9 -98%
Qingdao Xihaian FC vs. Zhejiang Zhiye FC: O/U 3.5 Jun 28 $25 +$24 +95%
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 4.5 Jun 28 $16 −$16 -98%
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: DR Congo O/U 1.5 Jun 28 $20 +$46 +226%
Colombia vs. Portugal: Both Teams to Score Jun 28 $30 −$29 -98%
Colombia vs. Portugal: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 28 $28 −$27 -98%
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $25 +$13 +49%
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 27 $15 −$5 -35%
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $29 −$29 -98%
Brian Cipenga: 1+ goals Jun 27 $10 −$10 -98%
Colombia vs. Portugal: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 27 $14 −$14 -98%
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ assists Jun 27 $15 −$15 -98%
Luis Díaz: 1+ goals Jun 27 $16 −$16 -98%
Panama vs. England: Panama O/U 2.5 Corners Jun 27 $21 +$37 +172%
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $16 +$32 +194%
Croatia vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score Jun 27 $20 +$39 +194%
Panama vs. England: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $29 −$28 -98%
Panama vs. England: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 27 $22 −$22 -98%
Croatia vs. Ghana: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 27 $20 +$32 +158%
Panama vs. England: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 27 $16 −$16 -98%
Panama vs. England: Both Teams to Score Jun 27 $22 −$22 -98%
Harry Kane: 2+ goals Jun 27 $15 −$15 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Florian Wirtz: 1+ assists SELL Yes 100¢ $32 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $25 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Germany O/U 1.5 BUY Over 48¢ $28 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 99¢ $78 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 43¢ $35 2h
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $25 2h
Germany vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 40¢ $20 2h
Florian Wirtz: 1+ assists BUY Yes 28¢ $9 3h
Deniz Undav: 1+ goals BUY Yes 41¢ $24 3h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $58 4h
Brazil vs. Japan: Brazil O/U 1.5 SELL Over 99¢ $61 4h
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance SELL Brazil 97¢ $55 4h
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals BUY Yes 27¢ $9 4h
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance BUY Brazil 44¢ $25 4h
Brazil vs. Japan: Brazil O/U 1.5 BUY Over 31¢ $19 4h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $25 5h
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 99¢ $51 26h
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 47¢ $24 26h
South Africa vs. Canada: Canada O/U 1.5 BUY Over 47¢ $25 29h
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 42¢ $31 29h
Jonathan David: 1+ goals BUY Yes 35¢ $14 29h
Jonathan David: 2+ goals BUY Yes $4 29h
Tajon Buchanan: 1+ assists BUY Yes 14¢ $5 29h
Spread: Shanghai Shenhua FC (-1.5) BUY Dalian Yingbo FC 37¢ $25 34h
Dalian Yingbo FC vs. Shanghai Shenhua FC: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 18¢ $9 35h
Qingdao Xihaian FC vs. Zhejiang Zhiye FC: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 40¢ $24 35h
Qingdao Xihaian FC vs. Zhejiang Zhiye FC: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 78¢ $50 35h
Qingdao Xihaian FC vs. Zhejiang Zhiye FC: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 39¢ $25 37h
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 30¢ $16 43h
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: DR Congo O/U 1.5 BUY Over 30¢ $20 46h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.10 · official $0.10 (match) · 56 history records