Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T09:58:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

66
0x66bf…c616
sports · 15 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$16 -29%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$17 · open −$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
Net worth$7
Realized−$17
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses7 / 5
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)12 / 15
History coverage14d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%
Chart Positions 3 History 12 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days−$17
14 days−$17
30 days−$17
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner T1 46¢ 100¢ $2 $4 +$2 (+117%)
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Gen.G 67¢ 26¢ $5 $2 −$3 (-60%)
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 37¢ 40¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $1 $0 +34%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $4 +$4 +93%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 11 $30 −$23 -75%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $1 +$2 +158%
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 07 $1 $0 +46%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 06 $3 +$1 +31%
Counter-Strike: paiN vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $1 +$1 +109%
Counter-Strike: NRG vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 05 $1 $0 -15%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs FlyQuest (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 05 $1 −$1 -95%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs Lynn Vision (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: THUNDER dOWNUNDER vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Sharks (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 04 $1 +$1 +61%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 98% −$18
other 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI SELL T1 66¢ $3 44m
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Gen.G 60¢ $1 1h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 46¢ $2 1h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 22¢ $1 2h
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 37¢ $1 16h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Gen.G 69¢ $1 21h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Gen.G 69¢ $3 21h
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Bilibili Gaming 74¢ $1 21h
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 17¢ $8 3d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Hanwha Life Esports 51¢ $4 6d
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY TYLOO 38¢ $1 7d
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Top Esports 68¢ $1 7d
Counter-Strike: paiN vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY TYLOO 47¢ $1 7d
Counter-Strike: NRG vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 SELL BIG 62¢ $1 8d
Counter-Strike: NRG vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 BUY BIG 71¢ $1 8d
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs FlyQuest (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 SELL Liquid $0 8d
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs FlyQuest (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 BUY Liquid 62¢ $1 9d
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Sharks (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 SELL TYLOO 100¢ $2 9d
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Sharks (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 BUY TYLOO 61¢ $1 10d
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs Lynn Vision (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 BUY Lynn Vision 38¢ $1 10d
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Bilibili Gaming 76¢ $3 10d
Counter-Strike: THUNDER dOWNUNDER vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Sta BUY THUNDER dOWNUNDER 24¢ $1 11d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 64¢ $30 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +58%
net ROI/market (all)+1.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +51.3% +36.9% 80% 80% -49.5%
≤30d 12 +12.3% +1.6% 58% 58% -42.7%
≤90d 12 +12.3% +1.6% 58% 58% -42.7%
all 12 +12.3% +1.6% 58% 58% -42.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +1.6% 58% -42.7%
10% -8.2% 58% -48.2%
15% -17.0% 42% -53.2%
20% -25.2% 33% -57.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7.39 · official $7.39 (match) · 31 history records