Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T16:02:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
66 0x66b9…edf8 sports 22 markets active 1h ago coverage 180d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$389 (+31%) realized +$389 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate50%11W / 11L
Drawdown24%max
Avg bet$56per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$4
14 days−$4
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 54% +$335
other 22% +$40
finance 16% +$3
politics 3% −$25
world 3% $0
crypto 2% +$32
culture 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-8.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -7.2% -16.0% 0% 0% -15.0%
≤30d 8 -6.2% -15.1% 12% 0% -12.9%
≤90d 14 +10.7% +0.1% 50% 14% +33.4%
all 22 +1.7% -8.0% 50% 23% +18.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.0% 23% +18.6%
10% -16.8% 23% +7.2%
15% -24.8% 23% -3.1%
20% -32.2% 23% -12.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 77% · top 2 85% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +48% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
55% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +31% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$46 vs −$11 · ×4.21 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.21 per $1 lost it wins $4.21
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

180d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$389
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses11 / 11
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)22 / 22
History coverage180d
Avg bet$56
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown24%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 22 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 15 $3 $0 -3%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $4 −$1 -21%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $7 −$1 -9%
Will San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL NFC Championship? Jun 15 $13 −$2 -17%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $15 $0 -0%
Will Saeed Jalili be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 12 $14 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 12 $8 $0 -0%
Nexus FDV above $200M one day after launch? May 21 $36 $0 +1%
MegaETH FDV above $600M one day after launch? May 05 $30 +$1 +2%
Magic vs. Pistons Apr 25 $6 $0 +0%
Jazz vs. Rockets Apr 04 $216 +$2 +1%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March? Apr 03 $198 +$3 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? Mar 23 $62 +$38 +61%
Trail Blazers vs. Timberwolves Mar 23 $294 +$389 +133%
Maple Leafs vs. Devils Mar 09 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from February 20 to Mar 02 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Norway win the most medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? Feb 24 $145 +$1 +1%
Grizzlies vs. Kings Feb 06 $19 +$20 +104%
Magic vs. Thunder Feb 05 $35 −$35 -100%
Sharks vs. Kings Jan 10 $42 −$42 -100%
Pistons vs. Lakers Jan 03 $22 +$17 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down on December 18? Dec 21 $31 +$32 +104%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 34¢ $3 52m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 35¢ $3 55m
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL Yes $3 1h
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY Yes $4 1h
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL Yes $7 1h
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY Yes $7 1h
Will San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL NFC Championship? SELL Yes $11 1h
Will San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL NFC Championship? BUY Yes $13 1h
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $15 3d
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $15 3d
Will Saeed Jalili be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $14 3d
Will Saeed Jalili be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $14 3d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $8 3d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $8 3d
Nexus FDV above $200M one day after launch? BUY Yes 99¢ $36 25d
MegaETH FDV above $600M one day after launch? BUY Yes 98¢ $30 51d
Magic vs. Pistons BUY Pistons 100¢ $6 53d
Jazz vs. Rockets BUY Rockets 99¢ $216 72d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March? BUY No 98¢ $198 76d
Trail Blazers vs. Timberwolves BUY Trail Blazers 43¢ $294 87d
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? BUY No 62¢ $62 88d
Maple Leafs vs. Devils BUY Maple Leafs 49¢ $14 102d
Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from February 20 to BUY Yes 42¢ $25 109d
Will Norway win the most medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? BUY Yes 99¢ $145 115d
Grizzlies vs. Kings BUY Grizzlies 49¢ $19 130d
Magic vs. Thunder BUY Magic 31¢ $35 132d
Sharks vs. Kings BUY Kings 70¢ $42 159d
Pistons vs. Lakers BUY Pistons 56¢ $22 167d
Bitcoin Up or Down on December 18? BUY Up 49¢ $31 179d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 45 history records