Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T17:36:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
66 0x66b8…10c8 other 12 markets active 1h ago coverage 16d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$354 (-55%) realized −$344 · open −$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -51% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -56% what you keep after slip
Net edge-56%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate14%1W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$54per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$222now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$38
7 days+$8
14 days−$7
30 days−$341
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 60% −$326
other 40% −$25
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-55.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +72.3% +55.9% 50% 50% +6.4%
≤30d 7 -50.8% -55.5% 14% 14% -87.7%
≤90d 7 -50.8% -55.5% 14% 14% -87.7%
all 7 -50.8% -55.5% 14% 14% -87.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -55.5% 14% -87.7%
10% -59.7% 14% -88.9%
15% -63.6% 14% -90.0%
20% -67.2% 14% -90.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -86% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -51% · $-wt -86% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$38 vs −$63 · ×0.6 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.1 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage
Net worth$222
Realized−$344
Unrealized−$10
Win rate (resolved)14%
Wins / losses1 / 6
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions5
Markets (closed)7 / 12
History coverage16d
Avg bet$54
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 20¢ $50 $62 +$12 (+23%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $50 $55 +$5 (+10%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Yes 62¢ 62¢ $53 $53 −$0 (-1%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $50 $45 −$5 (-10%)
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo play for the Boston Celtics in 2026-27? Yes 64¢ 16¢ $29 $7 −$22 (-74%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 21 $16 +$38 +244%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $31 −$30 -96%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 14 $16 −$15 -96%
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals? Jun 06 $52 −$50 -96%
Will Karl-Anthony Towns win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 06 $155 −$150 -97%
Spread: Spurs (-6.5) Jun 05 $38 −$37 -97%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 05 $99 −$97 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 62¢ $54 1h
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo play for the Boston Celtics in 2026-27? BUY Yes 64¢ $30 4d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $31 4d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $16 7d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 20¢ $16 7d
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals? BUY No 9¢ $52 15d
Will Karl-Anthony Towns win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? BUY Yes 35¢ $155 15d
Spread: Spurs (-6.5) BUY Spurs 50¢ $38 15d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $52 15d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $52 15d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $52 15d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 68¢ $99 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $221.97 · official $222.19 (match) · 29 history records