Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T03:33:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
66 0x66b8…3fcf politics 19 markets active 2h ago coverage 113d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate11%2W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$99per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 35% $0
other 35% $0
sports 11% +$1
crypto 10% $0
finance 5% $0
tech 4% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 3 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 13 +0.0% -9.5% 15% 0% -9.5%
all 19 -0.0% -9.5% 11% 0% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 0% -9.5%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 91% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×4.75 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

113d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses2 / 17
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)19 / 19
History coverage113d
Avg bet$99
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 19 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? Jun 23 $94 $0 -0%
Will the Arizona Cardinals win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $94 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 28 $94 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $189 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 19 $94 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 16 $93 +$1 +1%
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 14 $93 $0 -0%
Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2026? May 11 $93 $0 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 08 $94 $0 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 18 $95 $0 -0%
Will Jeon Hyun-heui win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 14 $95 $0 +0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 09 $190 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 26 $95 $0 -0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 16 $26 $0 +0%
Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Mar 13 $69 $0 +0%
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 11 $95 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 10 $95 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 06 $95 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 02 $95 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $94 1h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $94 13h
Will the Arizona Cardinals win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $94 7d
Will the Arizona Cardinals win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $94 8d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $94 25d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $94 25d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 96¢ $94 31d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 96¢ $94 32d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $94 34d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $94 35d
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 99¢ $93 38d
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $93 39d
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $93 40d
Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 99¢ $93 42d
Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 99¢ $93 43d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $93 45d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $94 45d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $95 65d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $95 66d
Will Jeon Hyun-heui win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election SELL No 100¢ $95 69d
Will Jeon Hyun-heui win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY No 100¢ $21 70d
Will Jeon Hyun-heui win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY No 100¢ $37 70d
Will Jeon Hyun-heui win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY No 100¢ $36 70d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $95 74d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $95 75d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $95 79d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $95 80d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $95 88d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $89 89d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $6 89d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 60 history records