Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T13:22:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
66 0x66b6…3792 world 41 markets active 2h ago coverage 253d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$33 (-4%) realized −$33 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate12%5W / 35L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$31now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days−$4
14 days−$9
30 days−$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 64% −$10
other 15% −$22
politics 11% −$1
sports 4% $0
culture 3% $0
tech 2% $0
crypto 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-13.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -2.7% -11.9% 12% 0% -11.4%
≤30d 21 -1.3% -10.7% 14% 0% -11.0%
≤90d 21 -1.3% -10.7% 14% 0% -11.0%
all 40 -4.4% -13.5% 12% 0% -13.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.5% 0% -13.0%
10% -21.8% 0% -21.3%
15% -29.3% 0% -28.9%
20% -36.2% 0% -35.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 83% · top 2 91% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.13 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.03 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

253d coverage
Net worth$31
Realized−$33
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses5 / 35
Open positions1
Markets (closed)40 / 41
History coverage253d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 40 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 87¢ 86¢ $31 $31 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 19 $34 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 17 $14 +$1 +6%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 15 $4 $0 -2%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $31 $0 -0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 14 $32 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $16 $0 -0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 13 $31 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 12 $18 −$4 -25%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 12 $5 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 11 $54 −$5 -10%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $43 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 09 $14 $0 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 08 $1 $0 +8%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $1 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $79 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $40 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 06 $4 $0 -5%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 06 $48 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $19 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 04 $39 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 04 $31 $0 -0%
Will Gold close above $4000 at the end of 2025? Jan 31 $22 −$22 -100%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Nov 05 $3 $0 -6%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 04 $4 −$1 -14%
Will Ethereum hit $5,000 by December 31? Oct 31 $14 $0 -2%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 31 $31 $0 -0%
Will the US recognize Palestine in 2025? Oct 28 $22 $0 +0%
Will Monad perform an airdrop by June 30? Oct 28 $21 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $3200 in October? Oct 27 $1 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 27 $18 $0 +0%
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2025? Oct 27 $1 $0 +0%
Will Evelyn Matthei win the Chilean presidential election? Oct 27 $23 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Hunter Biden in 2025? Oct 27 $22 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 13 $1 $0 -10%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no Oct 13 $4 $0 -0%
TikTok sale announced by October 31? Oct 12 $19 $0 +0%
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 12 $2 $0 -14%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 12 $46 $0 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Oct 11 $24 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell in 2025? Oct 10 $24 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 87¢ $23 2h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 87¢ $9 2h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $34 2h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $34 4h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $15 41h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $14 43h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 47¢ $4 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 48¢ $4 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $24 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $7 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $31 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 59¢ $32 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 59¢ $32 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 21¢ $4 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 21¢ $3 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 20¢ $7 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 64¢ $31 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 64¢ $31 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 20¢ $8 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 21¢ $9 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 18¢ $6 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 18¢ $7 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 24¢ $18 6d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 10¢ $5 7d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 10¢ $5 7d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL Yes 27¢ $1 8d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL No 72¢ $37 8d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY No 82¢ $43 8d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL Yes 25¢ $10 9d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY Yes 25¢ $11 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30.96 · official $31.14 (match) · 151 history records