Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T04:28:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
66 0x66b5…433e crypto 58 markets active 2h ago coverage 252d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$243 (+1%) realized +$241 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate93%52W / 4L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown23%max
Avg bet$536per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$1,054now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$9
7 days+$9
14 days+$22
30 days+$24
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 63% +$123
economics 10% +$39
politics 9% −$42
finance 8% +$50
world 6% +$7
other 4% +$50
tech 1% +$13
sports 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-8.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +2.2% -7.6% 100% 0% -7.6%
≤30d 5 +1.8% -7.9% 100% 0% -8.0%
≤90d 11 +1.6% -8.1% 100% 0% -8.7%
all 56 +1.7% -8.0% 93% 2% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.0% 2% -8.8%
10% -16.8% 0% -17.5%
15% -24.8% 0% -25.5%
20% -32.2% 0% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
98% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$1,023) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +2% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$16 · ×0.37 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×4.84 per $1 lost it wins $4.84
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

252d coverage
Net worth$1,054
Realized+$241
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)93%
Wins / losses52 / 4
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Open positions2
Markets (closed)56 / 58
History coverage252d
Avg bet$536
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown23%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 56 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? No 99¢ 100¢ $909 $912 +$3 (+0%)
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30? No 90¢ 90¢ $143 $142 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Jordan 2 - 1 Argentina? Jun 28 $142 +$1 +1%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $133 +$7 +5%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $170 by end of June? Jun 26 $134 +$1 +0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet Jun 17 $895 +$14 +2%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T? Jun 12 $128 +$1 +1%
Trump out as President by May 31? May 27 $1,025 +$3 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? May 18 $1,024 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in April? May 04 $1,023 +$2 +0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee Apr 26 $1,011 +$11 +1%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 15 $994 +$3 +0%
Genius FDV above $1B one day after launch? Apr 14 $232 +$14 +6%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $55 by end of March? Mar 28 $157 +$1 +0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March? Mar 26 $1,449 +$6 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? Mar 24 $829 +$3 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March Mar 19 $146 +$11 +8%
Bitcoin all time high by March 31, 2026? Mar 15 $107 $0 +0%
Abilene Christian Wildcats vs. Utah Tech Trailblazers Mar 15 $101 +$1 +1%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by March 13? Mar 12 $674 +$44 +6%
Trump out as President by March 31? Mar 09 $665 +$10 +1%
Opinion FDV above $2B one day after launch? Mar 05 $106 +$1 +1%
Opinion FDV above $250M one day after launch? Mar 05 $21 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum dip to $800 in February? Feb 24 $104 +$2 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in February? Feb 22 $796 +$15 +2%
Trump out as President before 2027? Feb 06 $954 −$54 -6%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch? Jan 02 $404 +$26 +6%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 31 $349 +$7 +2%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin in 2025? Dec 29 $166 +$2 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 27 $825 +$4 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 26 $1,252 +$14 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 16 $1,013 +$61 +6%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? Dec 11 $122 +$9 +8%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Dec 10 $34 +$1 +4%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 05 $98 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 in November? Dec 01 $20 +$3 +16%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 by December 31, 2025? Nov 27 $93 −$7 -8%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2025? Nov 20 $197 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 in November? Nov 20 $250 +$3 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2025? Nov 20 $296 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $170,000 by December 31, 2025? Nov 20 $300 +$2 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,900 November 10-16? Nov 18 $5 $0 +4%
Will Ethereum reach $4,300 November 10-16? Nov 18 $5 $0 +6%
Will Bitcoin dip to $92,000 November 10-16? Nov 18 $5 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $118,000 November 10-16? Nov 18 $5 $0 +5%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in November? Nov 14 $250 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,000 on November 11? Nov 11 $1,233 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $116k November 3-9? Nov 10 $1,251 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $122k November 3-9? Nov 07 $1,249 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $116,000 on November 6? Nov 07 $1,248 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $108,000 on November 5? Nov 05 $1,247 +$2 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $3.00 on November 4? Nov 05 $1,245 +$1 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30? BUY No 90¢ $144 1h
Exact Score: Jordan 2 - 1 Argentina? SELL No 100¢ $144 1h
Exact Score: Jordan 2 - 1 Argentina? BUY No 99¢ $142 3h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 95¢ $133 21h
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $170 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $135 44h
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $909 7d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet SELL Yes 100¢ $909 10d
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $170 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $134 12d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T? SELL Yes 100¢ $130 15d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T? BUY Yes 98¢ $128 26d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY Yes 98¢ $895 27d
Trump out as President by May 31? SELL No 100¢ $1,028 31d
Trump out as President by May 31? BUY No 100¢ $1,025 41d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? SELL No 100¢ $1,025 41d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $1,024 55d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $1,023 60d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee SELL Yes 100¢ $1,023 62d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee BUY Yes 99¢ $1,011 74d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m SELL No 99¢ $748 74d
Genius FDV above $1B one day after launch? SELL No 100¢ $222 74d
Genius FDV above $1B one day after launch? SELL No 100¢ $24 74d
Genius FDV above $1B one day after launch? BUY No 94¢ $232 75d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m SELL No 99¢ $249 77d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m BUY No 99¢ $994 82d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $55 by end of March? SELL No 100¢ $158 91d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March? SELL No 100¢ $836 93d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March? BUY No 99¢ $832 96d
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $832 96d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $55 by end of March? BUY No 99¢ $157 99d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March SELL Yes 99¢ $157 101d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,053.88 · official $1,053.88 (match) · 161 history records