Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T19:27:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0

score

66 0x66b4…d19f other 16 markets active 0h ago coverage 152d

TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL −$1,950 (-51%) realized −$1,946 · open −$4

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -34% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -40% what you keep after slip

Net edge-40%after slip

Net WR25%break-even

Win rate25%3W / 9L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$239per market

Trades / day0.3pace

Fees−$0est.

Kalshi-fit19%portable

Net worth$195now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$780

7 days+$780

14 days+$684

30 days+$373

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +25%

net ROI/market (all)-39.9%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	1	+124.8%	+103.4%	100%	100%	+103.4%
≤30d	11	-27.5%	-34.4%	27%	27%	+6.7%
≤90d	11	-27.5%	-34.4%	27%	27%	+6.7%
all	12	-33.5%	-39.9%	25%	25%	-38.8%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.3 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-39.9%	25%	-38.8%
10%	-45.6%	25%	-44.7%
15%	-50.9%	25%	-50.0%
20%	-55.7%	17%	-54.9%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 86% · top 2 95% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +18% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -34% · $-wt -32% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -33% → late -34% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$302 vs −$231 · ×1.31 wins ≈ losses

Profit factor

×0.44 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

152d coverage

Net worth$195

Realized−$1,946

Unrealized−$4

Win rate (resolved)25%

Wins / losses3 / 9

Est. fees paid−$0

Open positions4

Markets (closed)12 / 16

History coverage152d

Avg bet$239

Trades / day0.3

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit19%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 4 History 12 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29?	Yes	74¢	74¢	$100	$99	−$1 (-1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	16¢	24¢	$34	$50	+$16 (+46%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	17¢	11¢	$45	$29	−$16 (-35%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	5¢	4¢	$20	$17	−$3 (-16%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29?	Jun 29	$625	+$780	+125%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 21	$26	−$25	-98%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 21	$20	−$20	-98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 20	$762	−$51	-7%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 13	$82	−$80	-98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 13	$71	−$16	-23%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12?	Jun 12	$304	−$300	-98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11?	Jun 12	$51	+$81	+158%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11?	Jun 11	$101	+$44	+44%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 8.5	Jun 08	$10	−$10	-98%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	Jun 03	$31	−$30	-96%
Will Trump nominate Christopher Waller as the next Fed chair?	Jan 29	$1,544	−$1,544	-100%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29?	BUY Yes	74¢	$101	14m
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29?	SELL Yes	22¢	$103	40m
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29?	BUY Yes	43¢	$398	1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29?	BUY Yes	22¢	$18	1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29?	BUY Yes	22¢	$20	1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29?	BUY Yes	23¢	$10	1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29?	BUY Yes	23¢	$26	1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29?	BUY Yes	25¢	$26	1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29?	BUY Yes	25¢	$26	1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29?	BUY Yes	29¢	$51	1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29?	BUY Yes	28¢	$51	1h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	7¢	$5	7d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	26¢	$20	7d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	1¢	$5	8d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	13¢	$5	8d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	67¢	$10	8d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	98¢	$650	8d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	SELL Yes	17¢	$48	8d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	30¢	$10	8d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	39¢	$31	8d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	39¢	$71	8d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13?	BUY Yes	25¢	$31	15d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?	SELL Yes	47¢	$55	15d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13?	BUY Yes	23¢	$20	15d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13?	BUY Yes	22¢	$31	15d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?	BUY Yes	59¢	$71	15d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12?	BUY Yes	32¢	$51	16d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12?	BUY Yes	53¢	$101	17d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12?	BUY Yes	54¢	$101	17d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12?	BUY Yes	54¢	$51	17d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $195.10 · official $195.10 (match) · 62 history records