Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T23:12:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
66 0x66b1…7e49 sports 44 markets active 1h ago coverage 143d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
Total PnL +$1,330 (+17%) realized +$1,223 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt +17% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +6% what you keep after slip
Net edge+6%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate62%26W / 16L
Whale WR40%big bets
Drawdown37%max
Avg bet$178per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$71est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$209now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$395
7 days−$75
14 days+$47
30 days+$47
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 74% +$1,717
other 18% +$49
crypto 8% −$544
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)+5.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -11.9% -20.3% 42% 42% -10.8%
≤30d 13 -1.8% -11.2% 46% 46% -8.7%
≤90d 23 -11.8% -20.2% 35% 35% -5.5%
all 42 +16.6% +5.5% 62% 55% +5.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +5.5% 55% +5.1%
10% -4.6% 48% -5.0%
15% -13.8% 40% -14.2%
20% -22.3% 29% -22.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +17% · $-wt +16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 40% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +72% → late -39% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$116 vs −$112 · ×1.04 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.69 per $1 lost it wins $1.69
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

143d coverage
Net worth$209
Realized+$1,223
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses26 / 16
Whale WR (big bets)40%
Est. fees paid−$71
Open positions2
Markets (closed)42 / 44
History coverage143d
Avg bet$178
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown37%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 42 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Yes 34¢ 34¢ $150 $148 −$2 (-1%)
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $60 $61 +$1 (+2%)
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Yes 23¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Yes $40 $0 −$40 (-100%)
Spurs vs. Knicks Knicks 38¢ $300 $0 −$300 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $1,310 −$9 -1%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $603 −$534 -89%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $153 −$113 -74%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $41 −$40 -97%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $296 +$51 +17%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $572 +$507 +89%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $927 −$208 -22%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $759 +$356 +47%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $51 +$13 +25%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $153 +$253 +165%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $305 −$300 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $102 +$121 +119%
Bulls vs. Heat Apr 15 $30 −$30 -100%
Lakers vs. Knicks Apr 15 $36 −$36 -100%
Suns vs. Spurs Apr 15 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Apr 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Nets vs. Magic Apr 15 $53 −$53 -100%
Knicks vs. Pistons Apr 15 $107 −$107 -100%
Warriors vs. Timberwolves Apr 15 $100 −$100 -100%
76ers vs. Cavaliers Apr 15 $160 −$160 -100%
Heat vs. Hornets Apr 15 $150 +$365 +243%
76ers vs. Heat Apr 01 $125 +$385 +308%
Mavericks vs. Cavaliers Mar 15 $200 +$204 +102%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 15 $15 −$5 -36%
Nuggets vs. Warriors Feb 22 $150 +$141 +94%
Cavaliers vs. Thunder Feb 22 $100 +$112 +112%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 22 $20 +$1 +5%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 22 $10 +$3 +31%
Will the Miami Heat win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 22 $7 +$3 +40%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 22 $20 +$2 +12%
76ers vs. Pelicans Feb 22 $100 +$10 +10%
Hawks vs. Heat Feb 04 $60 +$39 +65%
Grizzlies vs. Pelicans Jan 31 $133 +$43 +33%
Bucks vs. Wizards Jan 30 $106 +$113 +106%
Trail Blazers vs. Wizards Jan 28 $117 +$58 +50%
Rams vs. Seahawks Jan 26 $98 +$11 +11%
Raptors vs. Thunder Jan 26 $18 +$8 +45%
Patriots vs. Broncos Jan 25 $114 +$64 +56%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-01-25? Jan 25 $55 +$103 +188%
Rockets vs. Pistons Jan 24 $100 +$40 +40%
Warriors vs. Mavericks Jan 23 $49 +$3 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $153 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 28¢ $61 1h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 89¢ $300 1h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 88¢ $890 1h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 84¢ $100 1h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 81¢ $1,006 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 10¢ $69 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes $41 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 85¢ $603 1h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 16¢ $111 1h
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes $41 7h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $153 13h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $204 13h
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $51 22h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 37¢ $41 22h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 96¢ $1,079 23h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 19¢ $66 23h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 71¢ $217 23h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 62¢ $202 23h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 44¢ $153 24h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $51 24h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $102 24h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 50¢ $102 24h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $304 25h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 58¢ $500 25h
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 35¢ $106 31h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $51 33h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $101 33h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $369 33h
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 35¢ $132 46h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $208.84 · official $208.87 (match) · 116 history records