Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T23:56:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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66 0x66ad…cc4e crypto 321 markets active 2h ago coverage 88d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 87d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$9,269 (-1%) realized −$12,673 · open +$3,404
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate81%245W / 58L
Whale WR89%big bets
Drawdown66%max
Avg bet$5,008per market
Trades / day36.0pace
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$95,956now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 88d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 94% +$12,308
other 5% +$20,902
world 1% +$1,760
politics 1% +$882
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)+7.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -18.9% -26.6% 54% 15% -19.3%
≤30d 58 -13.9% -22.1% 66% 24% -26.0%
≤90d 303 +19.1% +7.7% 81% 26% -7.1%
all 303 +19.1% +7.7% 81% 26% -7.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover36.0 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +7.7% 26% -7.1%
10% -2.6% 13% -16.0%
15% ← realistic here -12.0% 7% -24.1%
20% -20.6% 5% -31.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +19% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 89% (≥$6,780) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +6% → late +32% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
7.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$597 vs −$1,963 · ×0.3 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.29 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

88d coverage
Net worth$95,956
Realized−$12,673
Unrealized+$3,404
Win rate (resolved)81%
Wins / losses245 / 58
Whale WR (big bets)89%
Open positions18
Markets (closed)303 / 321
History coverage88d ⚠
Avg bet$5,008
Trades / day36.0
Drawdown66%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 18 History 303 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026? No 71¢ 70¢ $15,955 $15,888 −$68 (-0%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026? No 59¢ 52¢ $17,148 $15,315 −$1,834 (-11%)
Predict.fun FDV above $100M one day after launch? Yes 88¢ 87¢ $13,250 $13,050 −$200 (-2%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026? No 43¢ 35¢ $13,000 $10,500 −$2,500 (-19%)
Predict.fun FDV above $200M one day after launch? Yes 74¢ 78¢ $7,461 $7,863 +$402 (+5%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 29? Yes 97¢ 97¢ $4,850 $4,858 +$8 (+0%)
Predict.fun FDV above $300M one day after launch? Yes 50¢ 76¢ $3,099 $4,779 +$1,680 (+54%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 30? Yes 92¢ 94¢ $4,624 $4,722 +$98 (+2%)
Predict.fun FDV above $400M one day after launch? Yes 35¢ 69¢ $1,750 $3,474 +$1,724 (+99%)
Variational FDV above $500M one day after launch? Yes 60¢ 68¢ $2,560 $2,923 +$363 (+14%)
Predict.fun FDV above $500M one day after launch? Yes 26¢ 58¢ $1,300 $2,900 +$1,600 (+123%)
Predict.fun FDV above $600M one day after launch? Yes 21¢ 50¢ $1,050 $2,525 +$1,475 (+140%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? No 29¢ 21¢ $2,900 $2,100 −$800 (-28%)
Predict.fun FDV above $800M one day after launch? Yes 14¢ 36¢ $700 $1,825 +$1,125 (+161%)
Variational FDV above $300M one day after launch? Yes 74¢ 86¢ $1,142 $1,327 +$185 (+16%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 29? Yes 82¢ 87¢ $817 $868 +$51 (+6%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 30? Yes 75¢ 80¢ $749 $805 +$56 (+8%)
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 29? Up 39¢ 46¢ $195 $232 +$38 (+19%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 27? Jun 27 $840 +$160 +19%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 26? Jun 26 $4,778 +$222 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 26? Jun 26 $4,600 −$100 -2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 25? Jun 25 $6,855 −$243 -4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 26? Jun 25 $744 −$401 -54%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 25? Jun 25 $4,752 −$4,109 -86%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 24? Jun 24 $4,750 +$102 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 25? Jun 24 $705 −$429 -61%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 24? Jun 24 $764 −$666 -87%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 24? Jun 24 $1,763 +$219 +12%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 23? Jun 23 $9,792 +$200 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 23? Jun 23 $2,618 +$89 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 22? Jun 22 $1,905 +$95 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 20? Jun 20 $734 +$265 +36%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 20? Jun 20 $1,375 +$75 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 20? Jun 20 $371 +$300 +81%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 19? Jun 19 $1,850 +$187 +10%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 19? Jun 19 $9,800 +$189 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $9,496 +$229 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 18? Jun 18 $9,439 +$539 +6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $1,718 −$821 -48%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $2,798 +$202 +7%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? Jun 17 $8,800 +$1,010 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 17? Jun 17 $193 −$160 -83%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $2,880 +$120 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $692 −$139 -20%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $202 +$6 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $842 +$157 +19%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $3,723 +$277 +7%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $902 +$98 +11%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $1,169 +$331 +28%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $1,661 +$339 +20%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $4,242 +$225 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $5,034 +$415 +8%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $713 −$408 -57%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $1,916 +$286 +15%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $3,325 +$175 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $813 −$802 -99%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $4,765 +$235 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $814 +$275 +34%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $802 +$198 +25%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $3,473 +$165 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $327 +$23 +7%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,500 in June? Jun 04 $811 −$755 -93%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in June? Jun 04 $17,181 −$11,917 -69%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in June? Jun 03 $6,751 −$6,123 -91%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 3? Jun 03 $9,800 −$7,957 -81%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 3? Jun 02 $4,775 −$4,052 -85%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $9,800 −$9,625 -98%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $2,607 −$2,549 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 29? BUY Yes 97¢ $862 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 29? BUY Yes 97¢ $78 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 29? BUY Yes 97¢ $3,880 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 29? BUY Yes 97¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 29? BUY Up 39¢ $203 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 30? BUY Yes 75¢ $762 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 30? BUY Yes 92¢ $4,649 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 29? BUY Yes 82¢ $828 2h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 26? SELL Yes 90¢ $4,500 2d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 35¢ $1,177 2d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 35¢ $2,100 2d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 35¢ $172 2d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 35¢ $1 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 27? BUY Yes 84¢ $456 2d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 35¢ $5 2d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 35¢ $5 2d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 35¢ $2 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 27? BUY Yes 84¢ $359 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 27? BUY Yes 84¢ $21 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 27? BUY Yes 84¢ $5 3d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 35¢ $3 3d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 35¢ $37 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 26? BUY Yes 96¢ $3,657 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 26? BUY Yes 95¢ $1,121 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 25? SELL Yes 93¢ $3 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 25? SELL Yes 93¢ $326 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 25? SELL Yes 93¢ $37 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 25? SELL Yes 93¢ $50 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 25? SELL Yes 93¢ $5,840 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 25? SELL Yes 93¢ $356 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $95,955.58 · official $95,890.17 (match) · 3500 history records