Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T08:40:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
66 0x66ac…5e75 sports 481 markets active 1h ago coverage 35d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,926 (+9%) realized +$1,913 · open +$13
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate57%272W / 202L
Drawdown27%max
Avg bet$45per market
Trades / day14.6pace
Fees−$240est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$363now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$55
7 days+$665
14 days+$1,212
30 days+$1,935
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 97% +$1,721
other 3% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-0.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 123 +14.3% +3.4% 59% 52% +0.5%
≤30d 404 +16.0% +5.0% 60% 54% -0.3%
≤90d 474 +10.2% -0.3% 57% 53% -2.2%
all 474 +10.2% -0.3% 57% 53% -2.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -0.3% 53% -2.2%
10% -9.8% 44% -11.5%
15% -18.5% 35% -20.1%
20% -26.5% 27% -27.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late +12% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$29 vs −$31 · ×0.95 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.27 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

35d coverage
Net worth$363
Realized+$1,913
Unrealized+$13
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses272 / 202
Est. fees paid−$240
Open positions7
Markets (closed)474 / 481
History coverage35d
Avg bet$45
Trades / day14.6
Drawdown27%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 474 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
ITF Haskovo: Gina Feistel vs Ilinca Dalina Amariei Gina Feistel 78¢ 96¢ $50 $62 +$12 (+24%)
ITF Klosters: Tina Manescu vs Adrienn Nagy Adrienn Nagy 88¢ 100¢ $50 $57 +$7 (+14%)
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) G2 50¢ 55¢ $50 $54 +$4 (+9%)
ITF Tokyo: Hyeon Chung vs Masamichi Imamura Hyeon Chung 52¢ 50¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-4%)
Asuncion 2: Nick Hardt vs Matias Soto Nick Hardt 65¢ 62¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-4%)
Hyeon Chung vs. Masamichi Imamura: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 53¢ 50¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-5%)
Set Handicap: O'Connell (-1.5) vs Bonzi (+1.5) Bonzi 61¢ 56¢ $50 $46 −$4 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 158 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
ITF Zhengzhou: Chenting Zhu vs Jia-Jing Lu Jun 18 $55 −$49 -89%
Mao Mushika vs. Yu-Chen Lin: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $51 +$47 +93%
ITF Zhengzhou: Varvara Panshina vs Jiaqi Wang Jun 18 $50 +$14 +27%
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Petja Drame vs Karine Sarkisova Jun 17 $50 −$50 -99%
ITF Irvine: Yulia Zhytelna vs Midori Castillo Meza Jun 17 $50 +$7 +14%
ITF Tulsa: Ozan Baris vs Justin Boulais Jun 17 $101 −$100 -99%
ITF Tulsa: Jonah Braswell vs Nicolas Arseneault Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
ITF San Gregorio: Michelle Kelly Tikhonko vs Amy Stevens Jun 17 $15 +$1 +10%
ITF Mohammedia: Yasmine Kabbaj vs Luna Vujovic Jun 17 $51 +$29 +57%
Nottingham Open (Doubles): Chong/Kempen vs Aoyama/Chan Jun 17 $51 +$37 +73%
ITF Lourinha: Patrick Schoen vs Vasco Leote Prata Jun 17 $14 −$14 -97%
ITF Lourinha: Tiago Torres vs Zach Stephens Jun 17 $50 +$3 +6%
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Ignacio Buse Jun 17 $50 +$20 +40%
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Adela Polakovicova vs Karine Sarkisova Jun 17 $50 −$19 -38%
ITF Tauste: Yleymi Lugiana Muelle Valdez vs Celia Cervino Ruiz Jun 17 $51 −$10 -20%
Ipek Oz vs. Jessica Pieri: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $51 −$4 -9%
Set Handicap: Oz (-1.5) vs Pieri (+1.5) Jun 17 $51 −$2 -3%
ITF Haskovo: Bianca Barbulescu vs Denislava Glushkova Jun 17 $50 +$12 +24%
ITF Tauste: Viola Turini vs Diana Marcinkevica Jun 17 $50 +$16 +32%
ITF Samobor: Jakub Vrba vs Noa Vukadin Jun 17 $50 −$50 -100%
ITF Klosters: Julia Stusek vs Zoe Kaegi Jun 17 $50 +$6 +12%
ITF Zhengzhou: Daria Khomutsianskaya vs Jiangxue Han Jun 17 $37 +$11 +31%
ITF Zhengzhou: Varvara Panshina vs Yuyao Li Jun 17 $50 +$5 +11%
ITF Zhengzhou: Rina Saigo vs Tiana Tian Deng Jun 17 $51 +$37 +73%
ITF Taipei: Hiromi Abe vs Ikumi Yamazaki Jun 17 $50 +$15 +31%
ITF Sapporo: Eunchae Kim vs Sae Noguchi Jun 17 $50 +$13 +26%
ITF Irvine: Ingrid Carolina Millan Acosta vs Emery Combs Jun 17 $22 +$2 +11%
ITF Tauste: Andrea Palazon Lacasa vs Yasmine Mansouri Jun 16 $50 +$6 +12%
Set Handicap: Ruiz (-1.5) vs Valdez (+1.5) Jun 16 $51 −$2 -3%
Brescia: Fiona Ferro vs Kajsa Rinaldo Persson Jun 16 $51 +$26 +52%
ITF Blois: Ipek Oz vs Jessica Pieri Jun 16 $51 −$1 -2%
ITF Milano: Leonardo Borrelli vs Gianmarco Ferrari Jun 16 $50 +$3 +7%
Set Handicap: Rehberg (-1.5) vs Olivieri (+1.5) Jun 16 $51 +$84 +165%
Royan: Daniel Jade vs Michael Zhu Jun 16 $50 +$7 +14%
ITF Tauste: Elena Milovanovic vs Claudia Ferrer Perez Jun 16 $82 −$24 -29%
ITF Maanshan: Chase Ferguson vs Taiyo Yamanaka Jun 16 $83 +$24 +29%
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Mariya Yemshanova vs Patricia Georgiana Goina Jun 16 $50 −$50 -100%
ITF Maanshan: Tianhui Zhang vs Shintaro Imai Jun 16 $51 +$31 +62%
ITF Zhengzhou: Rinko Matsuda vs Ekaterina Maklakova Jun 16 $51 −$50 -99%
ITF Taipei: Natsumi Kawaguchi vs Yuno Kitahara Jun 16 $50 +$7 +14%
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Odeta Panasa vs Ana Giraldi Requena Jun 16 $51 −$50 -99%
ITF Tauste: Belle Thompson vs Celia Anson Sanchez Jun 16 $24 +$104 +442%
ITF Tauste: Viola Turini vs Sabine Rutlauka Jun 15 $50 +$8 +16%
Buse vs. Jodar: Match O/U 23.5 Jun 15 $51 −$2 -3%
Buse vs. Jodar: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 15 $51 −$2 -3%
Ignacio Buse vs. Rafael Jodar: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $51 −$2 -3%
Dublin: Clement Chidekh vs Colton Smith Jun 15 $51 +$28 +55%
Set Handicap: Starodubtseva (-1.5) vs Joint (+1.5) Jun 15 $51 +$31 +62%
Nottingham 2: Darwin Blanch vs Zhizhen Zhang Jun 15 $51 +$42 +83%
Jacob Brumm vs. Marcel Latak: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $38 −$7 -19%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Set Handicap: O'Connell (-1.5) vs Bonzi (+1.5) BUY Bonzi 61¢ $51 1h
ITF Klosters: Tina Manescu vs Adrienn Nagy BUY Adrienn Nagy 88¢ $50 1h
ITF Zhengzhou: Chenting Zhu vs Jia-Jing Lu BUY Jia-Jing Lu 65¢ $51 2h
ITF Zhengzhou: Chenting Zhu vs Jia-Jing Lu BUY Chenting Zhu 67¢ $4 3h
ITF Zhengzhou: Varvara Panshina vs Jiaqi Wang BUY Jiaqi Wang 78¢ $50 5h
ITF Haskovo: Gina Feistel vs Ilinca Dalina Amariei BUY Gina Feistel 78¢ $50 5h
Asuncion 2: Nick Hardt vs Matias Soto BUY Nick Hardt 65¢ $51 6h
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Petja Drame vs Karine Sarkisova BUY Karine Sarkisova 74¢ $50 9h
ITF Irvine: Yulia Zhytelna vs Midori Castillo Meza BUY Midori Castillo Meza 87¢ $50 12h
ITF Tulsa: Ozan Baris vs Justin Boulais BUY Justin Boulais 76¢ $50 13h
ITF Tulsa: Ozan Baris vs Justin Boulais BUY Justin Boulais 76¢ $50 13h
ITF Tulsa: Jonah Braswell vs Nicolas Arseneault BUY Jonah Braswell 45¢ $51 14h
ITF Lourinha: Patrick Schoen vs Vasco Leote Prata BUY Vasco Leote Prata 12¢ $14 19h
ITF San Gregorio: Michelle Kelly Tikhonko vs Amy Stevens BUY Amy Stevens 91¢ $15 20h
ITF Lourinha: Tiago Torres vs Zach Stephens BUY Tiago Torres 94¢ $50 20h
ITF Mohammedia: Yasmine Kabbaj vs Luna Vujovic BUY Luna Vujovic 63¢ $51 22h
ITF Samobor: Jakub Vrba vs Noa Vukadin BUY Noa Vukadin 87¢ $50 23h
ITF Haskovo: Bianca Barbulescu vs Denislava Glushkova BUY Denislava Glushkova 80¢ $50 23h
ITF Tauste: Viola Turini vs Diana Marcinkevica BUY Viola Turini 75¢ $50 24h
ITF Zhengzhou: Daria Khomutsianskaya vs Jiangxue Han BUY Daria Khomutsianskaya 76¢ $37 24h
ITF Klosters: Julia Stusek vs Zoe Kaegi BUY Julia Stusek 89¢ $50 25h
ITF Zhengzhou: Varvara Panshina vs Yuyao Li BUY Varvara Panshina 90¢ $50 27h
ITF Zhengzhou: Rina Saigo vs Tiana Tian Deng BUY Tiana Tian Deng 57¢ $51 29h
ITF Taipei: Hiromi Abe vs Ikumi Yamazaki BUY Hiromi Abe 76¢ $50 30h
ITF Irvine: Ingrid Carolina Millan Acosta vs Emery Combs BUY Emery Combs 90¢ $22 34h
ITF Sapporo: Eunchae Kim vs Sae Noguchi BUY Sae Noguchi 79¢ $50 37h
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Ignacio Buse BUY Brandon Nakashima 71¢ $50 39h
Nottingham Open (Doubles): Chong/Kempen vs Aoyama/Chan BUY Aoyama/Chan 57¢ $51 39h
Set Handicap: Oz (-1.5) vs Pieri (+1.5) BUY Pieri 51¢ $51 43h
Ipek Oz vs. Jessica Pieri: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Under 2.5 54¢ $51 43h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $362.81 · official $364.42 (match) · 822 history records