Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T04:25:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
66 0x66ac…1635 sports 16 markets active 1h ago coverage 101d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$3,192 (+22%) realized +$3,316 · open −$124
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -1% what you keep after slip
Net edge-1%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate88%7W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$921per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$214est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$296now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 101d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 98% +$3,084
other 1% −$88
world 0% $0
finance 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)+3.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 8 +14.3% +3.4% 88% 25% +10.3%
all 8 +14.3% +3.4% 88% 25% +10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +3.4% 25% +10.3%
10% -6.5% 25% -0.2%
15% -15.5% 25% -9.9%
20% -23.8% 25% -18.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 54% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +22% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
71% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +14% · $-wt +22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1,200 vs −$5,281 · ×0.23 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.59 per $1 lost it wins $1.59
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

101d coverage
Net worth$296
Realized+$3,316
Unrealized−$124
Win rate (resolved)88%
Wins / losses7 / 1
Est. fees paid−$214
Open positions8
Markets (closed)8 / 16
History coverage101d
Avg bet$921
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? No 32¢ 16¢ $150 $73 −$77 (-52%)
Tunisia vs. Japan: Tunisia O/U 0.5 Over 49¢ 48¢ $70 $68 −$2 (-3%)
Tunisia vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Yes 44¢ 48¢ $50 $54 +$4 (+8%)
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Tunisia 58¢ 44¢ $71 $53 −$18 (-25%)
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 2 Japan? Yes 11¢ 12¢ $30 $33 +$3 (+9%)
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 1 Japan? Yes 11¢ 8¢ $20 $15 −$5 (-23%)
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 0 Japan? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-99%)
Tunisia to score first vs. Japan? Yes 24¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Knicks vs. 76ers: O/U 214.5 May 11 $3,857 +$3,857 +100%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) May 10 $5,362 −$5,281 -98%
Military action against Iran ends on March 31, 2026? May 10 $2 $0 +4%
Will "American Girls - Harry Styles" be the #1 song on US Spotify this May 10 $2 $0 +5%
Will gas hit (High) $3.75 by March 31? May 10 $2 $0 +9%
Will Russia capture Hryshyne by June 30, 2026? May 10 $3 $0 +2%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $90 by end of March? May 10 $3 $0 +4%
Spread: Cavaliers (-4.5) May 10 $5,072 +$4,543 +90%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 0 Japan? BUY Yes 5¢ $9 56m
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 2 Japan? BUY Yes 11¢ $31 58m
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 11¢ $21 58m
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Tunisia 58¢ $72 1h
Tunisia vs. Japan: Tunisia O/U 0.5 BUY Over 49¢ $71 1h
Tunisia to score first vs. Japan? BUY Yes 24¢ $20 1h
Tunisia vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $51 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 32¢ $153 1h
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) BUY Spurs 49¢ $5,362 41d
Knicks vs. 76ers: O/U 214.5 BUY Over 50¢ $584 41d
Knicks vs. 76ers: O/U 214.5 BUY Over 50¢ $2,000 41d
Knicks vs. 76ers: O/U 214.5 BUY Over 50¢ $2 41d
Knicks vs. 76ers: O/U 214.5 BUY Over 50¢ $20 41d
Knicks vs. 76ers: O/U 214.5 BUY Over 50¢ $1,251 41d
Spread: Cavaliers (-4.5) BUY Cavaliers 52¢ $5,072 42d
Will "American Girls - Harry Styles" be the #1 song on US Spotify this BUY Yes 95¢ $2 100d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $90 by end of March? BUY Yes 96¢ $3 100d
Will gas hit (High) $3.75 by March 31? BUY Yes 92¢ $2 100d
Will Russia capture Hryshyne by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 98¢ $3 100d
Military action against Iran ends on March 31, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $2 100d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $296.05 · official $296.05 (match) · 29 history records