Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:37:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
66 0x66aa…3794 crypto 18 markets active 6d ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$8 (-24%) realized −$8 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -35% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -50% what you keep after slip
Net edge-50%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate33%6W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day48.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-41.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -34.8% -41.0% 33% 17% -37.1%
≤30d 18 -34.8% -41.0% 33% 17% -37.1%
≤90d 18 -34.8% -41.0% 33% 17% -37.1%
all 18 -34.8% -41.0% 33% 17% -37.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover48.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -41.0% 17% -37.1%
10% ← realistic here -46.6% 11% -43.1%
15% -51.8% 6% -48.6%
20% -56.5% 6% -53.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 60% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -30% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -35% · $-wt -30% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -40% → late -29% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.36 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.18 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses6 / 12
Open positions0
Markets (closed)18 / 18
History coverage1d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day48.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 18 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -76%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -96%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 -19%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 11 $2 +$1 +34%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +59%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -49%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$1 -38%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -95%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +20%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$1 -35%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 11 $3 $0 +5%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -89%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -60%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -96%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +8%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +10%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 11 $3 −$2 -94%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 11 $3 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET SELL Down 15¢ $0 6d
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $1 6d
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $1 6d
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $1 6d
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET SELL Down 63¢ $1 6d
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $1 6d
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET SELL Up 29¢ $1 6d
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $1 6d
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET SELL Down 84¢ $3 6d
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $1 6d
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $1 6d
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET SELL Down 91¢ $2 6d
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $1 6d
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET SELL Down 29¢ $1 6d
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 6d
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET SELL Down 2¢ $0 6d
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 6d
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET SELL Down 58¢ $1 6d
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $1 6d
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET SELL Down 2¢ $0 6d
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $1 6d
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 6d
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET SELL Down 28¢ $3 6d
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 13¢ $1 6d
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 6d
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET SELL Down 37¢ $1 6d
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $1 6d
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET SELL Up 28¢ $1 6d
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $1 6d
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET SELL Down 61¢ $1 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 49 history records