Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T22:12:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

66 0x66aa…3ebe sports 19 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover

Total PnL +$192 (+20%) realized +$178 · open +$14

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +33% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +2% what you keep after slip

Net edge+2%after slip

Net WR64%break-even

Win rate64%7W / 4L

Drawdown17%max

Avg bet$50per market

Trades / day28.8pace

Fees−$7est.

Kalshi-fit63%portable

Net worth$369now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +64%

net ROI/market (all)+20.5%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	11	+33.2%	+20.5%	64%	64%	+36.4%
≤30d	11	+33.2%	+20.5%	64%	64%	+36.4%
≤90d	11	+33.2%	+20.5%	64%	64%	+36.4%
all	11	+33.2%	+20.5%	64%	64%	+36.4%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover28.8 tr/day

realistic slip~13%

edge survives to10%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	+20.5%	64%	+36.4%
10% ← realistic here	+9.0%	64%	+23.3%
15%	-1.6%	55%	+11.4%
20%	-11.2%	55%	+0.5%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 40% · top 2 54% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +51% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +33% · $-wt +51% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$51 vs −$22 · ×2.35 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×4.12 per $1 lost it wins $4.12

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$369

Realized+$178

Unrealized+$14

Win rate (resolved)64%

Wins / losses7 / 4

Est. fees paid−$7

Open positions6

Markets (closed)11 / 19

History coverage1d

Avg bet$50

Trades / day28.8

Drawdown17%

Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 6 History 11 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	6¢	6¢	$115	$117	+$2 (+2%)
Rainbow Six Siege: M80 vs Cloud9 (BO1) - North America League Stage 1 Group Stage	M80	63¢	82¢	$63	$83	+$20 (+31%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	1¢	1¢	$70	$65	−$5 (-7%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	1¢	1¢	$60	$59	−$1 (-1%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	14¢	14¢	$27	$27	−$0 (-0%)
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	0¢	0¢	$20	$18	−$2 (-10%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5	Jun 18	$25	+$24	+93%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score	Jun 18	$25	−$22	-86%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner	Jun 18	$20	+$17	+86%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs	Jun 18	$201	+$52	+26%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw?	Jun 18	$20	+$33	+161%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner	Jun 18	$62	+$40	+65%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner	Jun 18	$51	+$49	+97%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw?	Jun 18	$20	−$20	-98%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 18	$64	+$143	+224%
Jordan Ayew: 3+ shots	Jun 17	$30	−$30	-99%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw?	Jun 17	$15	−$15	-98%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Rainbow Six Siege: M80 vs Cloud9 (BO1) - North America League Stage 1	BUY M80	63¢	$64	25m
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	0¢	$21	55m
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	1¢	$41	55m
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	1¢	$41	56m
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	6¢	$51	56m
Canada vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 1.5 AND Canada to win the second half?	BUY	48¢	$25	1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5	SELL Over	100¢	$49	1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score	SELL Yes	7¢	$4	1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner	SELL FURIA	100¢	$38	1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs	SELL FURIA	100¢	$253	1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs	BUY FURIA	79¢	$201	2h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner	BUY FURIA	53¢	$20	3h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	51¢	$25	4h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	51¢	$25	4h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw?	SELL Yes	70¢	$53	4h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner	BUY Aurora Gaming	60¢	$62	7h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner	BUY Aurora Gaming	50¢	$51	8h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-	BUY	5¢	$16	18h
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw?	BUY Yes	19¢	$20	20h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	8¢	$5	21h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	1¢	$31	23h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	6¢	$51	23h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw?	BUY Yes	26¢	$20	23h
Jordan Ayew: 3+ shots	BUY Yes	52¢	$30	23h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	40¢	$59	23h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	1¢	$21	24h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	6¢	$15	24h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	14¢	$28	24h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw?	BUY Yes	15¢	$15	24h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $368.88 · official $401.32 · 32 history records