Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T12:14:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
66 0x66a8…d75e other 7 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$19 (-37%) realized −$3 · open −$16
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -95% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -96% what you keep after slip
Net edge-96%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day5.9pace
Kalshi-fit43%portable
Net worth$17now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 62% −$25
other 36% $0
crypto 2% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-95.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -94.8% -95.3% 0% 0% -91.4%
≤30d 2 -94.8% -95.3% 0% 0% -91.4%
≤90d 2 -94.8% -95.3% 0% 0% -91.4%
all 2 -94.8% -95.3% 0% 0% -91.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -95.3% 0% -91.4%
10% -95.7% 0% -92.3%
15% -96.1% 0% -93.0%
20% -96.5% 0% -93.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -90% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -95% · $-wt -90% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
— vs −$5 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$17
Realized−$3
Unrealized−$16
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 2
Open positions5
Markets (closed)2 / 7
History coverage3d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day5.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit43%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 2 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 4¢ 1¢ $22 $6 −$16 (-72%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $3 $4 +$0 (+10%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 11¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+9%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-16%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+22%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $10 −$9 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $17.18 · official $17.18 (match) · 19 history records