Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T22:05:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
66 0x66a6…f22b crypto 961 markets active 0h ago coverage 21d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Total PnL −$66 (-2%) realized −$120 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate70%671W / 290L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day127.3pace
Fees−$30est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days−$83
14 days−$137
30 days−$120
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 55% −$37
sports 45% −$82
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-15.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 436 -6.4% -15.3% 78% 26% -13.8%
≤30d 961 -6.3% -15.3% 70% 41% -12.5%
≤90d 961 -6.3% -15.3% 70% 41% -12.5%
all 961 -6.3% -15.3% 70% 41% -12.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover127.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.3% 41% -12.5%
10% ← realistic here -23.4% 26% -20.9%
15% -30.8% 11% -28.5%
20% -37.6% 5% -35.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
39% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.35 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

21d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$120
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses671 / 290
Est. fees paid−$30
Open positions0
Markets (closed)961 / 961
History coverage21d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day127.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 961 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 +14%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $4 +$1 +18%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $8 $0 -1%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $20 +$3 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $3 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $3 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $3 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $3 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $3 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $3 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $3 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $3 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records