Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T22:34:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
66 0x66a2…5577 crypto 91 markets active 3d ago coverage 173d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$5,027 (-68%) realized −$5,027 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -65% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -68% what you keep after slip
Net edge-68%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate2%2W / 89L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$81per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$792
14 days−$1,886
30 days−$2,364
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 29% −$1,918
crypto 28% −$1,582
world 21% −$232
economics 9% −$526
finance 6% −$262
politics 5% −$326
tech 4% −$266
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-68.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -99.9% -99.9% 0% 0% -99.9%
≤30d 53 -50.1% -54.8% 2% 2% -70.7%
≤90d 56 -52.7% -57.2% 2% 2% -73.0%
all 91 -65.1% -68.4% 2% 2% -76.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -68.4% 2% -76.2%
10% -71.4% 2% -78.5%
15% -74.2% 2% -80.6%
20% -76.7% 2% -82.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 99% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -64% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -65% · $-wt -70% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -38% → late -91% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$439 vs −$67 · ×6.52 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.15 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

173d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$5,027
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)2%
Wins / losses2 / 89
Open positions0
Markets (closed)91 / 91
History coverage173d
Avg bet$81
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 91 Trades
no open positions (67 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $11 −$10 -94%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 14? Jun 14 $32 −$30 -94%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 13? Jun 13 $21 −$20 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $11 −$10 -95%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $21 −$20 -94%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 12? Jun 12 $25 −$23 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $64 −$60 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $11 −$10 -93%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $11 −$10 -94%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on June 12? Jun 11 $4 −$4 -94%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 12? Jun 11 $11 −$10 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 12? Jun 11 $11 −$10 -94%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? Jun 11 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $20 −$19 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $76 −$71 -93%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 11? Jun 11 $21 −$20 -94%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 11? Jun 11 $21 −$20 -94%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 11? Jun 11 $43 −$40 -93%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 11 $201 −$201 -100%
Will the ECB announce a 50+ bps increase at the June 2026 meeting? Jun 11 $64 −$58 -91%
Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the June 2026 meeting? Jun 11 $30 −$29 -95%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $21 −$20 -93%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $72 −$68 -94%
Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $16 −$15 -94%
Will the ECB announce no change at the June 2026 meeting? Jun 10 $672 −$639 -95%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $86 −$80 -93%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $96 −$90 -93%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $11 −$10 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $69 −$65 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $3 −$3 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $64 −$60 -94%
Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by Jun Jun 09 $92 −$92 -100%
Will the ECB announce a 25 bps decrease at the June 2026 meeting? Jun 07 $44 −$40 -92%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? Jun 01 $174 −$174 -100%
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31? Jun 01 $346 −$346 -100%
Will the ECB announce a 50+ bps decrease at the June 2026 meeting? May 31 $14 −$4 -31%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 in May? May 29 $160 −$61 -38%
Will Donald Trump dance on May 25, 2026? May 29 $286 −$275 -96%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T? May 29 $35 −$7 -20%
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in May? May 28 $68 −$59 -87%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee May 27 $105 −$24 -22%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet May 27 $52 −$7 -13%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in May? May 27 $305 −$216 -71%
Will Ethereum reach $3,400 in May? May 26 $30 −$28 -94%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May? May 26 $52 −$28 -54%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in May? May 26 $5 −$5 -94%
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in May? May 26 $43 −$40 -94%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May? May 26 $68 −$19 -28%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25? May 26 $31 +$867 +2795%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 14? BUY Yes 0¢ $10 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 14? BUY No 0¢ $11 3d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 14? BUY No 1¢ $21 3d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 14? BUY No 1¢ $11 3d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 13? BUY No 0¢ $21 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 13? BUY No 28¢ $11 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 13? BUY No 0¢ $11 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 13? BUY No 0¢ $11 4d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 12? BUY Yes 0¢ $3 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 12? BUY Yes 0¢ $11 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 12? BUY Yes 0¢ $53 5d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 12? BUY Yes 0¢ $11 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 12? BUY Yes 0¢ $11 5d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 12? BUY Yes 0¢ $11 5d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 12? BUY Yes 1¢ $11 5d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on June 12? BUY Yes 0¢ $4 6d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 12? BUY Yes 0¢ $11 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 12? BUY Yes 0¢ $11 6d
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? BUY No 0¢ $10 6d
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? BUY No 0¢ $10 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 11? BUY Yes 0¢ $11 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 11? BUY No 0¢ $16 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 11? BUY No 0¢ $32 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 11? BUY No 0¢ $1 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 11? BUY No 0¢ $5 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 11? BUY No 1¢ $11 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 11? BUY No 0¢ $11 6d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 11? BUY Yes 0¢ $21 6d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 11? BUY No 1¢ $21 6d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 11? BUY Yes 0¢ $11 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 269 history records