Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T19:25:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
66 0x66a2…d3fc sports 28 markets active 1h ago coverage 213d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$2,100 (-22%) realized −$2,133 · open +$33
Gross ROI / mkt -25% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate41%11W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$338per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$101est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$171now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$1,303
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 74% −$1,749
other 26% −$549
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-32.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 16 -31.8% -38.3% 38% 38% -34.8%
≤90d 26 -28.6% -35.4% 38% 38% -36.8%
all 27 -25.2% -32.4% 41% 41% -32.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -32.4% 41% -32.2%
10% -38.8% 37% -38.7%
15% -44.7% 33% -44.6%
20% -50.2% 26% -50.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -30% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -25% · $-wt -25% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -45% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$224 vs −$300 · ×0.75 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.51 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

213d coverage
Net worth$171
Realized−$2,133
Unrealized+$33
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses11 / 16
Est. fees paid−$101
Open positions1
Markets (closed)27 / 28
History coverage213d
Avg bet$338
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 27 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers Detroit Tigers 69¢ 86¢ $138 $171 +$33 (+24%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $301 −$291 -97%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $324 −$23 -7%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $199 +$126 +63%
Counter-Strike: Wanted Goons vs Overtake (BO3) - NSTLGA League Playoff Jun 12 $210 −$205 -98%
Counter-Strike: Detonate vs Iowa Stormboar (BO3) - NSTLGA League Playo Jun 12 $100 −$96 -96%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $100 −$96 -97%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 12 $100 −$100 -100%
Athletics vs. San Diego Padres Jun 12 $800 −$800 -100%
Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5) Jun 12 $582 +$126 +22%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 12 $88 −$6 -7%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $500 −$485 -97%
Will Armenia win on 2026-06-09? Jun 12 $73 −$73 -100%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 12 $350 +$180 +52%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 11 $430 +$205 +48%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $500 +$203 +41%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 09 $40 +$33 +81%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 23 $400 +$592 +148%
Colorado Rockies vs. Arizona Diamondbacks May 23 $276 −$276 -100%
New York Mets vs. Miami Marlins May 23 $250 −$250 -100%
Counter-Strike: ex-Zero Tenacity vs SAW (BO3) - CCT Europe Closed Qual May 23 $464 −$464 -100%
Counter-Strike: Fake do Biru vs paiN Academy (BO3) - CCT South America May 23 $934 −$934 -100%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Group B May 23 $496 −$496 -100%
Golden Knights vs. Avalanche May 23 $250 +$357 +143%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? May 22 $199 −$199 -100%
Spread: Athletics (-1.5) May 22 $400 +$96 +24%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 22 $449 +$228 +51%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2025-11-26? Nov 26 $522 +$319 +61%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Detroit Tigers 69¢ $140 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 20¢ $301 15d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? SELL No 46¢ $301 15d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 47¢ $324 15d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FURIA 60¢ $199 15d
Counter-Strike: Wanted Goons vs Overtake (BO3) - NSTLGA League Playoff BUY Wanted Goons 49¢ $210 15d
Counter-Strike: Detonate vs Iowa Stormboar (BO3) - NSTLGA League Playo BUY Iowa Stormboar $100 15d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $100 15d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes BUY Golden Knights $100 15d
Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5) BUY Baltimore Orioles 81¢ $582 15d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 20¢ $82 15d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 32¢ $500 15d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 20¢ $88 15d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates SELL Los Angeles Dodgers 94¢ $530 15d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 60¢ $350 15d
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals SELL Texas Rangers 99¢ $635 15d
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Texas Rangers 65¢ $430 15d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $703 15d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $500 16d
Will Armenia win on 2026-06-09? BUY Yes 59¢ $73 18d
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Houston Astros 54¢ $40 18d
Athletics vs. San Diego Padres BUY Athletics 44¢ $800 35d
Thunder vs. Spurs SELL Thunder 100¢ $992 35d
Golden Knights vs. Avalanche SELL Golden Knights 99¢ $607 35d
Thunder vs. Spurs BUY Thunder 39¢ $400 35d
New York Mets vs. Miami Marlins BUY New York Mets 27¢ $250 35d
Golden Knights vs. Avalanche BUY Golden Knights 39¢ $250 35d
Counter-Strike: ex-Zero Tenacity vs SAW (BO3) - CCT Europe Closed Qual BUY ex-Zero Tenacity 37¢ $464 36d
Counter-Strike: Fake do Biru vs paiN Academy (BO3) - CCT South America BUY Fake do Biru 65¢ $934 36d
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Group B BUY B8 56¢ $496 36d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $170.62 · official $170.62 (match) · 52 history records