Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:20:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
66 0x66a1…80d9 other 378 markets active 0h ago coverage 22d ⚠
BOTnot copyable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 21d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (139 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$3,041 (-18%) realized −$1,091 · open −$1,950
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate34%56W / 109L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$45per market
Trades / day139.0pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$6,274now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 22d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 40% −$1,800
world 38% −$295
politics 6% +$77
tech 5% +$118
finance 4% −$10
weather 4% −$66
economics 2% −$167
sports 0% −$59
crypto 0% −$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (139 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)+3.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 78 +8.6% -1.7% 38% 12% -11.2%
≤30d 165 +14.3% +3.4% 34% 12% -12.8%
≤90d 165 +14.3% +3.4% 34% 12% -12.8%
all 165 +14.3% +3.4% 34% 12% -12.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover139.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +3.4% 12% -12.8%
10% ← realistic here -6.5% 10% -21.1%
15% -15.5% 10% -28.7%
20% -23.8% 10% -35.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
62% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +14% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +21% → late +8% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
7.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$9 · ×1.39 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

22d coverage
Net worth$6,274
Realized−$1,091
Unrealized−$1,950
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses56 / 109
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions495
Markets (closed)165 / 378
History coverage22d ⚠
Avg bet$45
Trades / day139.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 495 History 165 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.0T by December 31? Yes 88¢ 88¢ $131 $132 +$1 (+1%)
Will Dan Motreanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Yes 1¢ 4¢ $16 $127 +$110 (+675%)
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? Yes 8¢ 5¢ $170 $116 −$54 (-32%)
Will Anthropic’s market cap be between 0.6T and 0.9T at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $83 $96 +$14 (+16%)
Will any AI model reach 1560 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026? Yes 86¢ 80¢ $100 $93 −$6 (-6%)
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? No 96¢ 95¢ $93 $92 −$1 (-1%)
Will there be 15+ VAR decisions overturned during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 93¢ 87¢ $84 $78 −$6 (-7%)
Will Anthropic’s market cap be less than 0.6T at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $35 $70 +$35 (+99%)
Will Anthropic’s market cap be between 1.2T and 1.5T at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027? Yes 17¢ 21¢ $50 $63 +$13 (+25%)
KRG declares independence from Iraq by December 31? Yes 8¢ 6¢ $78 $61 −$17 (-22%)
Will Brad Bradford win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election? No 81¢ 82¢ $59 $60 +$1 (+1%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 18? Yes 12¢ 11¢ $65 $59 −$6 (-9%)
Fed rate cut by October 2026 meeting? Yes 20¢ 29¢ $38 $54 +$16 (+41%)
Will Tread launch a token by December 31, 2027? Yes 89¢ 87¢ $53 $52 −$1 (-2%)
Will Gavin Newsom announce a Presidential run by December 31, 2026? No 86¢ 84¢ $52 $50 −$2 (-3%)
Will Anthropic’s market cap be 1.8T or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027? Yes 46¢ 48¢ $46 $48 +$2 (+5%)
Will Kraken's valuation hit (HIGH) $12.5B by December 31? Yes 86¢ 80¢ $52 $48 −$4 (-7%)
Will Alex De Paula be the Republican nominee for Senate in Virginia? Yes 0¢ 3¢ $5 $47 +$43 (+914%)
Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026? No 31¢ 22¢ $62 $45 −$17 (-27%)
Will Phil Lyman be the Republican nominee for UT-03? No 93¢ 89¢ $46 $44 −$2 (-4%)
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 26 or 27 governorships after the 2026 midterm elections? No 82¢ 82¢ $44 $44 +$0 (+1%)
Will the U.S. test a nuclear weapon by December 31 2026? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $45 $44 −$1 (-3%)
Jung Chung-rae out as DP leader by December 31, 2026? No 29¢ 24¢ $53 $43 −$10 (-19%)
Anthropic IPO before 2027? No 19¢ 21¢ $38 $42 +$4 (+11%)
Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in 2026? No 86¢ 84¢ $43 $42 −$1 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Celeste Maloy be the Republican nominee for UT-03? Jun 17 $48 +$2 +5%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? Jun 17 $276 +$10 +4%
Will Alexandru Nazare be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Jun 17 $45 +$4 +10%
Will Adrian Veștea be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Jun 17 $45 +$5 +10%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 18°C on June 16? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 60-61°F on Jun Jun 17 $103 −$30 -29%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the US government rescind its ban on all foreign use of Claude Fa Jun 17 $20 $0 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $38 −$3 -7%
Will Trump meet with Giorgia Meloni by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $121 −$21 -17%
Will the US government rescind its ban on all foreign use of Claude Fa Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $52 −$32 -61%
JD Vance out as VP by June 15? Jun 16 $1 $0 -10%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $345 +$5 +2%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15? Jun 16 $104 −$4 -4%
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 m Jun 16 $25 −$25 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 16 $48 +$1 +3%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $199 +$1 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 16? Jun 16 $98 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on June 15? Jun 16 $7 $0 -4%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 15? Jun 15 $84 −$44 -52%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 15? Jun 15 $75 −$75 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 15 $596 +$5 +1%
Will JD Vance sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 15 $49 +$1 +2%
US and Iran sign an agreement by July 31, 2026? Jun 15 $49 +$1 +2%
Will Trump meet with Keir Starmer in 2026? Jun 15 $104 −$2 -2%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 15 $652 −$5 -1%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 15 $158 −$53 -33%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 17? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Natus Vincere (-3.5) vs Team Falcons (+3.5) Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 34°C on June 13? Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? Jun 14 $99 +$1 +1%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31? Jun 14 $251 −$2 -1%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 14 $257 +$1 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? Jun 13 $20 $0 +2%
Another US strike on Venezuela by December 31? Jun 13 $4 +$36 +953%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.0T and $1.5T at market close on Jun 13 $18 +$40 +215%
Will SpaceX's market cap be less than $1.0T at market close on IPO day Jun 13 $15 +$34 +226%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on Jun 13 $22 +$37 +169%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on Jun 13 $0 $0 +150%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $900B and $1T at market close on I Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.2T and $1.4T at market close on Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Will SpaceX's market cap be less than $1.0T at market close on IPO day Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.0T and $1.2T at market close on Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $3.0T and $3.5T at market close on Jun 13 $25 +$87 +354%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 18? BUY Yes 9¢ $3 0m
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 18? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 0m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY Yes 28¢ $14 9m
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 18? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 11m
Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 14m
Will Dan Caine be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 18m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY No 70¢ $35 21m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY No 70¢ $3 24m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY No 70¢ $32 25m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY Yes 28¢ $14 32m
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 18? BUY Yes 10¢ $14 38m
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 18? BUY Yes 10¢ $0 38m
Will Mike Collins win the Georgia Republican Senate Primary runoff ele BUY No 2¢ $0 46m
Will Celeste Maloy be the Republican nominee for UT-03? BUY No 14¢ $7 57m
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 18? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 59m
Will Celeste Maloy be the Republican nominee for UT-03? BUY Yes 81¢ $40 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 18? BUY Yes 10¢ $4 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 18? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 1h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY Yes 56¢ $28 1h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? SELL Yes 60¢ $30 1h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY No 40¢ $20 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 18? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 1h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY Yes 59¢ $30 1h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY Yes 59¢ $30 1h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY No 38¢ $37 1h
Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? BUY No 87¢ $44 1h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY Yes 42¢ $21 1h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY Yes 26¢ $26 1h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY No 54¢ $54 1h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY Yes 57¢ $28 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6,274.29 · official $6,406.28 · 3500 history records