Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T07:46:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
66 0x66a0…04d4 crypto 49 markets active 2h ago coverage 240d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$48 (+0%) realized +$46 · open +$2
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate87%39W / 6L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown11%max
Avg bet$1,206per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$4,333now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 82% +$50
tech 5% −$3
politics 5% −$3
other 2% $0
sports 2% −$1
culture 2% −$1
world 2% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 3 -3.4% -12.6% 67% 0% -12.9%
≤90d 7 -1.4% -10.8% 86% 0% -9.5%
all 45 -0.1% -9.7% 87% 0% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.5%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.1%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$1,395) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.69 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×4.5 per $1 lost it wins $4.5
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

240d coverage
Net worth$4,333
Realized+$46
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)87%
Wins / losses39 / 6
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Open positions4
Markets (closed)45 / 49
History coverage240d
Avg bet$1,206
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown11%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 45 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $2,100 June 15-21? No 100¢ 100¢ $2,124 $2,126 +$1 (+0%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,100 June 15-21? No 100¢ 100¢ $2,028 $2,028 +$0 (+0%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 June 15-21? No 100¢ 100¢ $132 $132 −$0 (-0%)
Will Reya launch a token by June 30, 2026? No 96¢ 99¢ $46 $47 +$1 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Tread FDV above $100M one day after launch May 31 $40 +$1 +2%
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $875B by June 30? May 28 $43 −$5 -12%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 in April? May 23 $36 $0 +0%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? Apr 17 $1,156 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 8? Apr 09 $1,145 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 7? Apr 08 $1,144 +$1 +0%
Will XRP dip to $0.20 in January? Apr 07 $33 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.50 and $1.60 on January 4? Jan 05 $1,412 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $150 and $160 on January 2? Jan 03 $1,410 +$1 +0%
Will Solana dip to $100 in December? Jan 01 $1,407 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on December 30? Dec 31 $1,406 +$1 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.50 and $1.60 on December 29? Dec 30 $1,405 +$1 +0%
Will Solana dip to $110 December 22-28? Dec 29 $1,403 +$1 +0%
Will the price of XRP be greater than $2.40 on December 28? Dec 29 $1,402 +$1 +0%
Will Google (GOOGL) finish week of December 22 above $270? Dec 27 $1,400 +$1 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $2.30 and $2.40 on December 25? Dec 26 $1,399 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on December 23? Dec 24 $1,398 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on December 22? Dec 23 $1,396 +$1 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 December 15-21? Dec 22 $1,395 +$1 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $2.20 and $2.30 on December 20? Dec 21 $1,393 +$1 +0%
Will Google (GOOGL) finish week of December 15 above $340? Dec 20 $1,392 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $140 on December 18? Dec 19 $1,391 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on December 17? Dec 18 $1,389 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on December 16? Dec 17 $1,388 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $3,600 on December 15? Dec 16 $1,386 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,700 on December 13? Dec 14 $1,385 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $100 and $110 on December 12? Dec 13 $1,384 +$1 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $2.40 and $2.50 on December 11? Dec 12 $1,382 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $160 and $170 on December 10? Dec 11 $1,381 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,700 on December 9? Dec 10 $1,378 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,800 on December 8? Dec 09 $1,377 +$1 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,500 December 1-7? Dec 08 $1,375 +$2 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,300 October 27-November 2? Dec 07 $37 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $2.10 and $2.20 on November 1? Nov 02 $1,360 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,400 on October 31? Nov 01 $1,357 +$3 +0%
Will Ajax win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 31 $1,359 −$1 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 30 $1,358 −$1 -0%
Will the price of XRP be between $2.10 and $2.20 on October 28? Oct 29 $1,359 +$1 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $2.20 and $2.30 on October 27? Oct 28 $1,357 +$1 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,300 October 20-26? Oct 27 $1,356 +$1 +0%
Will the Arizona Cardinals win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 27 $1,353 −$1 -0%
Will the price of XRP be between $2.30 and $2.40 on October 25? Oct 26 $1,356 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $4,200 on October 24? Oct 25 $1,355 +$1 +0%
Will The Fantastic Four: First Steps be the top grossing movie of 2025 Oct 24 $1,354 −$1 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 23 $1,354 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 June 15-21? BUY No 100¢ $132 1h
Will Ethereum reach $2,100 June 15-21? BUY No 100¢ $120 1h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,100 June 15-21? BUY No 100¢ $2,028 1h
Will Ethereum reach $2,100 June 15-21? BUY No 100¢ $2,005 1h
Will Reya launch a token by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $46 7d
Tread FDV above $100M one day after launch SELL No 69¢ $13 19d
Tread FDV above $100M one day after launch SELL No 70¢ $27 19d
Tread FDV above $100M one day after launch BUY No 67¢ $40 21d
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $875B by June 30? SELL No 21¢ $38 22d
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $875B by June 30? BUY No 22¢ $43 22d
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $36 63d
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? BUY No 100¢ $1,156 64d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 8? BUY No 100¢ $1,145 71d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 7? BUY No 100¢ $1,144 72d
Will XRP dip to $0.20 in January? BUY No 100¢ $33 165d
Will the price of XRP be between $1.50 and $1.60 on January 4? BUY No 100¢ $1,412 167d
Will the price of Solana be between $150 and $160 on January 2? BUY No 100¢ $1,410 168d
Will Solana dip to $100 in December? BUY No 100¢ $1,407 170d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on December 30? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,406 171d
Will the price of XRP be between $1.50 and $1.60 on December 29? BUY No 100¢ $1,405 171d
Will Solana dip to $110 December 22-28? BUY No 100¢ $1,403 172d
Will the price of XRP be greater than $2.40 on December 28? BUY No 100¢ $1,402 174d
Will Google (GOOGL) finish week of December 22 above $270? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,400 175d
Will the price of XRP be between $2.30 and $2.40 on December 25? BUY No 100¢ $1,399 177d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on December 23? BUY No 100¢ $1,398 178d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on December 22? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,396 178d
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 December 15-21? BUY No 100¢ $1,395 180d
Will the price of XRP be between $2.20 and $2.30 on December 20? BUY No 100¢ $1,393 181d
Will Google (GOOGL) finish week of December 15 above $340? BUY No 100¢ $1,392 182d
Will the price of Solana be above $140 on December 18? BUY No 100¢ $1,391 183d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,333.02 · official $4,333.02 (match) · 119 history records