Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T14:08:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
66 0x669d…88e5 sports 4 markets active 2h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$47 (+2%) realized +$34 · open +$13
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate100%3W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$518per market
Trades / day44.0pace
Fees−$34est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1,425now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$60
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-3.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +6.2% -3.9% 100% 0% -4.4%
≤30d 3 +6.2% -3.9% 100% 0% -4.4%
≤90d 3 +6.2% -3.9% 100% 0% -4.4%
all 3 +6.2% -3.9% 100% 0% -4.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover44.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -3.9% 0% -4.4%
10% ← realistic here -13.1% 0% -13.5%
15% -21.5% 0% -21.9%
20% -29.2% 0% -29.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 60% · top 2 88% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
16.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$16 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$1,425
Realized+$34
Unrealized+$13
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses3 / 0
Est. fees paid−$34
Open positions1
Markets (closed)3 / 4
History coverage2d
Avg bet$518
Trades / day44.0
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: ex-MANA eSports vs Subtop De France - Map 2 Winner ex-MANA eSports 42¢ 50¢ $1,076 $1,256 +$180 (+17%)
Counter-Strike: ex-MANA eSports vs Subtop De France - Map 2 Winner Subtop De France 47¢ 50¢ $156 $169 +$13 (+8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: NEXORA vs CYBERSHOKE Prospects (BO3) - GLuck Yungstar Jun 28 $442 +$13 +3%
Counter-Strike: NEXORA vs CYBERSHOKE Prospects - Map 1 Winner Jun 28 $98 +$6 +6%
Counter-Strike: Misa Esports vs Wampirki (BO3) - CCT Europe Challenger Jun 27 $289 +$28 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: ex-MANA eSports vs Subtop De France - Map 2 Winner BUY ex-MANA eSports 39¢ $78 1h
Counter-Strike: ex-MANA eSports vs Subtop De France - Map 2 Winner BUY ex-MANA eSports 39¢ $13 1h
Counter-Strike: ex-MANA eSports vs Subtop De France - Map 2 Winner BUY ex-MANA eSports 37¢ $272 1h
Counter-Strike: ex-MANA eSports vs Subtop De France - Map 2 Winner BUY ex-MANA eSports 37¢ $2 1h
Counter-Strike: ex-MANA eSports vs Subtop De France - Map 2 Winner BUY ex-MANA eSports 37¢ $48 1h
Counter-Strike: ex-MANA eSports vs Subtop De France - Map 2 Winner BUY ex-MANA eSports 42¢ $15 1h
Counter-Strike: ex-MANA eSports vs Subtop De France - Map 2 Winner BUY ex-MANA eSports 37¢ $12 1h
Counter-Strike: ex-MANA eSports vs Subtop De France - Map 2 Winner BUY ex-MANA eSports 48¢ $72 1h
Counter-Strike: ex-MANA eSports vs Subtop De France - Map 2 Winner BUY ex-MANA eSports 50¢ $33 1h
Counter-Strike: ex-MANA eSports vs Subtop De France - Map 2 Winner BUY ex-MANA eSports 50¢ $64 1h
Counter-Strike: ex-MANA eSports vs Subtop De France - Map 2 Winner BUY ex-MANA eSports 50¢ $12 1h
Counter-Strike: ex-MANA eSports vs Subtop De France - Map 2 Winner BUY ex-MANA eSports 50¢ $90 1h
Counter-Strike: ex-MANA eSports vs Subtop De France - Map 2 Winner BUY ex-MANA eSports 50¢ $20 1h
Counter-Strike: ex-MANA eSports vs Subtop De France - Map 2 Winner BUY ex-MANA eSports 45¢ $51 1h
Counter-Strike: ex-MANA eSports vs Subtop De France - Map 2 Winner BUY ex-MANA eSports 42¢ $62 1h
Counter-Strike: ex-MANA eSports vs Subtop De France - Map 2 Winner BUY ex-MANA eSports 47¢ $111 1h
Counter-Strike: ex-MANA eSports vs Subtop De France - Map 2 Winner BUY ex-MANA eSports 50¢ $23 1h
Counter-Strike: ex-MANA eSports vs Subtop De France - Map 2 Winner BUY ex-MANA eSports 47¢ $28 1h
Counter-Strike: ex-MANA eSports vs Subtop De France - Map 2 Winner BUY ex-MANA eSports 46¢ $12 1h
Counter-Strike: ex-MANA eSports vs Subtop De France - Map 2 Winner BUY ex-MANA eSports 42¢ $30 1h
Counter-Strike: ex-MANA eSports vs Subtop De France - Map 2 Winner BUY ex-MANA eSports 42¢ $10 1h
Counter-Strike: ex-MANA eSports vs Subtop De France - Map 2 Winner BUY ex-MANA eSports 37¢ $6 1h
Counter-Strike: ex-MANA eSports vs Subtop De France - Map 2 Winner BUY ex-MANA eSports 37¢ $3 1h
Counter-Strike: ex-MANA eSports vs Subtop De France - Map 2 Winner BUY ex-MANA eSports 37¢ $8 1h
Counter-Strike: ex-MANA eSports vs Subtop De France - Map 2 Winner BUY ex-MANA eSports 37¢ $5 1h
Counter-Strike: ex-MANA eSports vs Subtop De France - Map 2 Winner BUY ex-MANA eSports 37¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: ex-MANA eSports vs Subtop De France - Map 2 Winner BUY ex-MANA eSports 37¢ $4 1h
Counter-Strike: ex-MANA eSports vs Subtop De France - Map 2 Winner BUY Subtop De France 47¢ $61 1h
Counter-Strike: ex-MANA eSports vs Subtop De France - Map 2 Winner BUY Subtop De France 46¢ $97 1h
Counter-Strike: NEXORA vs CYBERSHOKE Prospects (BO3) - GLuck Yungstar BUY CYBERSHOKE Prospects 49¢ $3 20h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,424.54 · official $1,424.54 (match) · 70 history records