Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:44:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
66 0x669d…19b0 other 619 markets active 1h ago coverage 240d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 239d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$934 (+2%) realized +$772 · open +$162
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate66%398W / 205L
Whale WR71%big bets
Drawdown82%max
Avg bet$79per market
Trades / day13.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit53%portable
Net worth$1,308now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$61
7 days−$1,470
14 days−$1,414
30 days−$1,313
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 51% +$1,077
sports 17% +$129
world 16% −$339
tech 7% −$178
crypto 5% +$137
finance 2% −$111
politics 1% −$115
culture 0% +$14
economics 0% +$26
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-6.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 38 -27.3% -34.2% 39% 16% -41.7%
≤30d 53 -4.6% -13.7% 45% 25% -30.9%
≤90d 103 +5.1% -4.9% 55% 35% -12.2%
all 603 +3.0% -6.8% 66% 29% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.8% 29% -8.8%
10% -15.8% 20% -17.5%
15% -23.9% 15% -25.5%
20% -31.4% 10% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
55% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 71% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +10% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$35 · ×0.52 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.07 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

240d coverage
Net worth$1,308
Realized+$772
Unrealized+$162
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses398 / 205
Whale WR (big bets)71%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions16
Markets (closed)603 / 619
History coverage240d ⚠
Avg bet$79
Trades / day13.0
Drawdown82%
Kalshi-fit53%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 16 History 603 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Zoom Video Communications be acquired before 2027? No 59¢ 82¢ $355 $498 +$143 (+40%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 80¢ 90¢ $159 $181 +$22 (+14%)
Will Canada have the highest unemployment rate since 2016 this year? No 71¢ 92¢ $89 $115 +$26 (+29%)
Will Snapchat be acquired before 2027? No 56¢ 79¢ $81 $114 +$33 (+41%)
Will Avengers: Doomsday have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026? Yes 66¢ 72¢ $98 $106 +$7 (+8%)
Anthropic IPO before 2027? No 36¢ 22¢ $155 $92 −$63 (-40%)
Will Tesla sell a Cybercab for 30k or less in 2026? No 74¢ 74¢ $74 $74 +$0 (+0%)
SEC removes quarterly reporting requirement? No 65¢ 82¢ $39 $49 +$10 (+25%)
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026? Yes 26¢ 60¢ $18 $42 +$23 (+125%)
Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026? Yes 17¢ 12¢ $27 $18 −$8 (-32%)
GTA 6 launch postponed again? Yes 26¢ 18¢ $11 $8 −$3 (-30%)
Will England be the highest-scoring team in Group L during the Group Stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 74¢ 73¢ $8 $7 −$0 (-1%)
Will Bill Gates be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island? Yes 18¢ 2¢ $9 $1 −$8 (-91%)
Will Waymo operate in 5 cities or less on June 30 2026? Yes 43¢ 4¢ $9 $1 −$8 (-91%)
Will Bill Clinton be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island? Yes 27¢ 1¢ $11 $0 −$10 (-97%)
Harry Kane: 1+ goals No 16¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1 $0 +0%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 49 and 50 million views on day 4 Jun 17 $81 +$19 +24%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 48 and 49 million views on day 4 Jun 16 $6 −$3 -49%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 45 and 46 million views on day 3 Jun 16 $745 −$79 -11%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 46 and 47 million views on day 3 Jun 16 $324 +$124 +38%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $9 +$1 +14%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $2 +$3 +194%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $2 +$3 +163%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 37 and 39 million views on day 2 Jun 15 $24 −$5 -19%
NBA Finals: Timothee Chalamet to attend all Knicks Home Games? Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on Jun 12 $21 −$12 -60%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $568 −$49 -8%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $32 $0 -1%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on Jun 12 $128 +$2 +2%
Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $1T at market close on IPO da Jun 12 $46 −$46 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 18? Jun 12 $60 +$1 +2%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 17? Jun 12 $52 +$2 +4%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? Jun 12 $38 +$2 +6%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? Jun 12 $54 +$1 +2%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $8 −$3 -40%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Claude Code Commits hit (HIGH) 600.0k by May 31? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Claude Code Commits hit (HIGH) 750.0k by May 31? Jun 12 $178 −$178 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? Jun 12 $163 −$144 -88%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 61 and 62 million views on day 6 Jun 12 $27 −$27 -100%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 63 and 64 million views on day 6 Jun 12 $318 −$318 -100%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 53 and 54 million views on day 4 Jun 12 $85 −$85 -100%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 62 and 63 million views on day 6 Jun 12 $418 −$271 -65%
Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027? Jun 12 $404 −$404 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $5 −$3 -52%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 12 $174 +$2 +1%
Korea Republic to score first vs. Czechia? Jun 12 $16 −$1 -4%
Julián Quiñones: 1+ assists Jun 11 $7 $0 +5%
César Huerta: 1+ assists Jun 11 $85 +$2 +2%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Mexico O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $29 +$15 +51%
Will SpaceX IPO on June 8, 2026? Jun 09 $17 +$3 +18%
Will OpenAI file for an IPO by June 5, 2026? Jun 06 $14 +$100 +705%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Jun 03 $134 −$24 -18%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 03 $61 −$23 -38%
Will GPT-6 be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 02 $51 −$17 -33%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 20 and 25 million views on day 1 May 31 $212 +$37 +18%
Will 1+ world records be broken at the 2026 Enhanced Games? May 25 $0 $0 -97%
Will Claude Code Commits hit (LOW) 450.0k by May 31? May 24 $2 +$2 +133%
Enhanced Games: Men’s 100m Sprint World Record Broken? May 24 $205 +$16 +8%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 65 and 66 million views on day 6 May 22 $19 +$1 +5%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 64 and 65 million views on day 6 May 22 $602 +$90 +15%
Will Claude Code Commits hit (HIGH) 700.0k by May 31? May 21 $8 +$17 +224%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Harry Kane: 1+ goals BUY No 11¢ $1 33m
Harry Kane: 1+ goals BUY No 20¢ $1 33m
Harry Kane: 1+ goals SELL Yes 46¢ $2 43m
Harry Kane: 1+ goals SELL Yes 46¢ $0 43m
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 16¢ $1 46m
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 48m
Harry Kane: 1+ goals BUY Yes 45¢ $2 1h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 48 and 49 million views on day 4 SELL Yes 3¢ $3 23h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 49 and 50 million views on day 4 BUY Yes 80¢ $81 25h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 48 and 49 million views on day 4 BUY Yes 6¢ $4 26h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 48 and 49 million views on day 4 BUY Yes 6¢ $0 26h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 48 and 49 million views on day 4 BUY Yes 6¢ $2 26h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 45 and 46 million views on day 3 BUY Yes 47¢ $47 35h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 46 and 47 million views on day 3 BUY No 45¢ $22 35h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 45 and 46 million views on day 3 BUY Yes 65¢ $70 36h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 46 and 47 million views on day 3 BUY No 65¢ $66 36h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 46 and 47 million views on day 3 BUY No 64¢ $20 37h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 45 and 46 million views on day 3 BUY Yes 72¢ $0 37h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 45 and 46 million views on day 3 BUY Yes 72¢ $13 37h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 45 and 46 million views on day 3 BUY Yes 72¢ $4 37h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 46 and 47 million views on day 3 BUY No 74¢ $148 37h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 45 and 46 million views on day 3 BUY Yes 72¢ $37 37h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 45 and 46 million views on day 3 BUY Yes 73¢ $73 37h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 45 and 46 million views on day 3 BUY Yes 72¢ $90 37h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 45 and 46 million views on day 3 SELL No 11¢ $19 42h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 45 and 46 million views on day 3 SELL No 29¢ $1 43h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 45 and 46 million views on day 3 SELL No 29¢ $60 43h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 88¢ $4 47h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY No 78¢ $4 47h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 45 and 46 million views on day 3 SELL No 60¢ $66 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,307.59 · official $1,308.04 (match) · 3500 history records