Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T13:41:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
66 0x6695…bd6f other 54 markets active 1h ago coverage 88d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$38 (-1%) realized −$37 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt +19% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +8% what you keep after slip
Net edge+8%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate30%15W / 35L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$98per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit31%portable
Net worth$110now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6
7 days+$14
14 days+$4
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 93% −$20
sports 5% −$19
world 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)+8.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +203.3% +174.4% 43% 29% -8.2%
≤30d 12 +113.7% +93.3% 33% 25% -9.3%
≤90d 50 +19.3% +8.0% 30% 10% -10.2%
all 50 +19.3% +8.0% 30% 10% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +8.0% 10% -10.2%
10% -2.4% 6% -18.8%
15% -11.8% 6% -26.6%
20% -20.5% 4% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 57% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +19% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late +47% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×0.98 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.42 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

88d coverage
Net worth$110
Realized−$37
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses15 / 35
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions4
Markets (closed)50 / 54
History coverage88d
Avg bet$98
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit31%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 50 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $105 $105 −$0 (-0%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 19¢ $2 $3 +$0 (+18%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $3 $2 −$1 (-40%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $395 $0 -0%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $1 +$7 +650%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $200 $0 +0%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $90 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $1 +$9 +874%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $287 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $14 −$14 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $11 +$5 +42%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $209 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $208 $0 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $104 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 25 $224 $0 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $105 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 20 $337 $0 -0%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 18 $105 $0 -0%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 17 $105 $0 -0%
Will Malta win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $105 $0 +0%
Will Greece win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $4 −$3 -77%
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $104 $0 +0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? May 11 $227 $0 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? May 10 $108 $0 -0%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 08 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 08 $119 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $119 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 06 $110 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 06 $8 +$1 +9%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 05 $235 $0 -0%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? May 03 $8 −$2 -20%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 03 $123 $0 -0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? May 03 $117 $0 -0%
Will San Marino win Eurovision 2026? May 02 $242 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 02 $118 $0 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? May 01 $118 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 27 $125 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 27 $125 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $125 $0 -0%
76ers vs. Celtics Apr 26 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $140 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $140 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $140 $0 -0%
76ers vs. Celtics Apr 20 $16 −$16 -100%
76ers vs. Celtics Apr 20 $11 +$2 +14%
Nets vs. Raptors Apr 13 $10 +$1 +5%
Mavericks vs. Spurs Apr 11 $10 +$1 +7%
Bucks vs. Pistons Apr 09 $9 +$1 +10%
Cavaliers vs. Grizzlies Apr 07 $8 +$1 +10%
Pacers vs. Cavaliers Apr 06 $7 +$1 +11%
Hawks vs. Nets Apr 04 $7 +$1 +10%
Spurs vs. Bucks Apr 02 $6 $0 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $105 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 1h
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $98 1h
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $98 24h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 24h
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $99 24h
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $99 3d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 3d
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $90 3d
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $90 4d
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 4d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $91 4d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $91 8d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $91 9d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $91 11d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $91 11d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $91 12d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 81¢ $14 12d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $11 12d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $101 12d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $101 17d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $101 17d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $101 20d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $101 20d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $101 23d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $3 23d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $104 23d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $104 25d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $104 25d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $104 27d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $110.43 · official $110.43 (match) · 169 history records