Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T14:24:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
66 0x6691…30a0 sports 112 markets active 3h ago coverage 114d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$24 (-11%) realized −$24 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate68%76W / 36L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$1
14 days−$2
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 55% −$22
other 23% −$2
weather 20% $0
culture 2% $0
politics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-19.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 -0.0% -9.5% 85% 0% -11.4%
≤30d 63 -2.7% -11.9% 89% 0% -12.3%
≤90d 63 -2.7% -11.9% 89% 0% -12.3%
all 112 -11.1% -19.6% 68% 16% -19.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.6% 16% -19.6%
10% -27.3% 15% -27.3%
15% -34.3% 14% -34.3%
20% -40.7% 11% -40.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 44% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
76% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -21% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.32 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

114d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$24
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses76 / 36
Open positions0
Markets (closed)112 / 112
History coverage114d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 112 Trades
no open positions (31 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Kraken have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? Jun 21 $40 −$2 -4%
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? Jun 21 $1 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C or higher on June 18 Jun 20 $1 $0 -0%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 22°C or below on June 19? Jun 20 $1 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 35°C or higher on June 19 Jun 20 $1 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June Jun 20 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 36°C or higher on June 19? Jun 19 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C or below on June 19? Jun 19 $1 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 19? Jun 19 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 39°C or higher on June 19? Jun 19 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 19? Jun 19 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 34°C or higher on June 19? Jun 19 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 19? Jun 19 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C or higher on June 18? Jun 18 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on June 18? Jun 18 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 18? Jun 18 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 18? Jun 18 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on June 18? Jun 18 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 36°C or higher on June 18? Jun 18 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 18? Jun 18 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 17? Jun 17 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C or below on June 17? Jun 17 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 37°C on June 17? Jun 17 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C or higher on June 17? Jun 17 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 13°C or below on June 17? Jun 17 $1 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 17 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 27°C on June 17? Jun 17 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 25°C on June 17? Jun 17 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 17? Jun 17 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C or higher on June 17? Jun 17 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 37°C on June 17? Jun 17 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 17? Jun 17 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on June 17? Jun 17 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 96-97°F on Ju Jun 12 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be 104°F or higher on June 11? Jun 12 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 36°C or higher on June Jun 12 $1 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on June 11? Jun 12 $1 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Jun Jun 12 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 36°C or higher on June 11? Jun 12 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C or higher on June 11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C or higher on June 11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 16°C or higher on June 11? Jun 11 $2 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 28°C or higher on June 11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 35°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 34°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $1 $0 +0%
Will "The Witness" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? Jun 09 $1 $0 +0%
Will "Michael Jackson: The Verdict" be the top US Netflix show this we Jun 09 $1 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Kraken have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? SELL Yes $1 3h
Will Kraken have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? SELL Yes $18 3h
Will Kraken have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? BUY Yes $20 3h
Will Kraken have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? SELL Yes $0 3h
Will Kraken have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? SELL Yes $19 3h
Will Kraken have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? BUY Yes $20 3h
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1 3h
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1 26h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C or higher on June 18 SELL No 100¢ $1 27h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 22°C or below on June 19? SELL No 100¢ $1 27h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 35°C or higher on June 19 SELL No 100¢ $1 27h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June BUY No 100¢ $1 2d
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 22°C or below on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C or below on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in London be 36°C or higher on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 39°C or higher on June 19? BUY No 99¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 34°C or higher on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 35°C or higher on June 19 BUY No 100¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $1 2d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C or higher on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 36°C or higher on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C or higher on June 18 BUY No 100¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $1 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 198 history records