Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T09:57:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
66 0x668f…ff32 crypto 132 markets active 10h ago coverage 108d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$154 (-45%) realized −$154 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -58% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -62% what you keep after slip
Net edge-62%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate15%20W / 112L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$13
7 days−$24
14 days−$24
30 days−$24
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 93% −$157
other 4% −$1
world 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-61.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 -52.8% -57.3% 19% 19% -59.8%
≤30d 36 -52.8% -57.3% 19% 19% -59.8%
≤90d 128 -58.5% -62.4% 15% 14% -53.0%
all 132 -57.7% -61.8% 15% 14% -51.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -61.8% 14% -51.5%
10% -65.4% 12% -56.2%
15% -68.8% 11% -60.4%
20% -71.8% 11% -64.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -50% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -58% · $-wt -48% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -59% → late -56% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×1.08 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.19 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

108d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$154
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)15%
Wins / losses20 / 112
Open positions0
Markets (closed)132 / 132
History coverage108d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 132 Trades
no open positions (42 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$3 +252%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -95%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$2 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$2 +173%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +140%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -94%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -94%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -94%
Ethereum above 2,335 on April 30, 10PM ET? May 01 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum above 2,290 on April 30, 10PM ET? May 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin above 76,000 on April 30, 10PM ET? May 01 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin above 77,600 on April 30, 10PM ET? May 01 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin above 76,800 on April 30, 10PM ET? May 01 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum above 2,230 on April 30, 10PM ET? May 01 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin above 77,200 on April 30, 10PM ET? May 01 $4 −$4 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 30, 9PM ET May 01 $4 −$4 -94%
Solana Up or Down - April 29, 6PM ET Apr 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 29, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Apr 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 29, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Apr 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 29, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Apr 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 29, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Apr 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Apr 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $1 9h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $1 9h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 10h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $1 12h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $1 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $1 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 13h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $1 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $1 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 6¢ $1 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $1 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $1 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $1 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 9¢ $1 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $1 15h
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 13¢ $2 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $2 19h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $1 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $2 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $2 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $1 24h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 29h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $1 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $1 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $1 47h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $1 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $1 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $1 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 375 history records