Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T23:14:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
66 0x668d…97d2 other 257 markets active 4d ago coverage 214d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 213d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$39,048 (+7%) realized +$36,399 · open +$2,649
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate31%154W / 338L
Whale WR77%big bets
Drawdown99%max
Avg bet$2,100per market
Trades / day13.9pace
Kalshi-fit54%portable
Net worth$46,512now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
politics 46% −$1,950
other 38% −$11,331
world 7% −$206
culture 3% +$27,879
tech 3% +$101
economics 2% +$280
sports 0% +$548
crypto 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-27.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 272 -36.8% -42.9% 8% 8% -93.2%
≤30d 281 -35.4% -41.6% 11% 9% -76.7%
≤90d 319 -33.2% -39.6% 16% 11% -31.8%
all 488 -19.7% -27.3% 32% 15% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.9 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -27.3% 15% -8.7%
10% ← realistic here -34.3% 12% -17.5%
15% -40.6% 11% -25.4%
20% -46.5% 9% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 68% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -27% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
52% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 77% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -12% → late -29% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
8.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$271 vs −$121 · ×2.25 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

214d coverage
Net worth$46,512
Realized+$36,399
Unrealized+$2,649
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses154 / 338
Whale WR (big bets)77%
Open positions96
Markets (closed)492 / 257
History coverage214d ⚠
Avg bet$2,100
Trades / day13.9
Drawdown99%
Kalshi-fit54%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 96 History 492 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
10.0 or above earthquake before 2027? No 94¢ 97¢ $11,024 $11,306 +$282 (+3%)
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 50¢ 80¢ $4,450 $7,080 +$2,630 (+59%)
Will the next UK election be called by June 30, 2026? No 96¢ 99¢ $2,844 $2,941 +$97 (+3%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 92¢ 86¢ $3,117 $2,925 −$192 (-6%)
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? No 86¢ 94¢ $2,309 $2,549 +$240 (+10%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 24¢ $171 $2,438 +$2,267 (+1325%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 19¢ $243 $2,058 +$1,815 (+747%)
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 50¢ 20¢ $4,500 $1,840 −$2,660 (-59%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 11¢ $172 $1,179 +$1,007 (+584%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 10¢ $297 $1,173 +$875 (+294%)
New "Stranger Things" episode released by December 31? No 84¢ 94¢ $1,014 $1,134 +$120 (+12%)
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? No 91¢ 92¢ $910 $925 +$15 (+2%)
No one announced as next James Bond? Yes 3¢ 99¢ $22 $837 +$815 (+3741%)
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? No 93¢ 96¢ $744 $767 +$24 (+3%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 7¢ $172 $728 +$556 (+322%)
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $883 $616 −$268 (-30%)
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $557 $540 −$17 (-3%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 63¢ 100¢ $315 $500 +$185 (+59%)
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? No 87¢ 99¢ $437 $497 +$61 (+14%)
Will the U.S. invade Greenland in 2026? No 91¢ 96¢ $455 $477 +$22 (+5%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 4¢ $172 $460 +$288 (+167%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 6¢ $91 $348 +$257 (+281%)
Iran Nuke before 2027? No 90¢ 93¢ $300 $311 +$11 (+4%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $172 $279 +$107 (+62%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $172 $253 +$81 (+47%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 344 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Szymon Gumularz win the 2025 FIDE Grand Swiss chess tournament? Jun 29 $11 −$11 -100%
Another 7.0 or above earthquake by August 31? Jun 29 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Andy Byron be the #1 searched person on Google this year? Jun 29 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Raul Perestrello win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? Jun 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Alireza Firouzja win the Sinquefield Cup 2025 chess tournament? Jun 29 $9 +$37 +421%
Will Peru win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 29 $172 −$172 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from November 7 to November 14, 202 Jun 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Taylor Swift be the #1 searched person on Google this year? Jun 29 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Maxime Vachier-Lagrave win the 2025 Chess Esports World Cup? Jun 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Will MrBeast say Million / Billion 15+ times during next video? Jun 29 $548 −$1,658 -302%
Will MrBeast raise 40m on Sunday August 31? Jun 29 $30 −$7 -23%
Will Donald Trump rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2025? Jun 29 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Maria Steen win the Irish Presidential Election? Jun 29 $37 −$37 -100%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 29 $172 −$172 -100%
Will Daniil Dubov win the 2025 FIDE World Cup? Jun 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Nodirbek Abdusattorov win the 2025 FIDE World Cup? Jun 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Jack Osbourne win series 25 of "I'm a Celebrity... Get Me Out of Jun 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Will U.S. summer tourism decline in 2025? Jun 29 $0 $0 -100%
Will Manuela Magno win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? Jun 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Timothée Chalamet and Kylie Jenner engaged in 2025? Jun 29 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Henrique Gouveia e Melo win the 2026 Portugal presidential electi Jun 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Nodirbek Yakubboev win the 2025 FIDE World Cup? Jun 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the Farmer–Citizen Movement win the second most seats in the 2025 Jun 29 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Donald Trump be the #1 searched person on Google this year? Jun 29 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Javokhir Sindarov win the 2025 FIDE Grand Swiss chess tournament? Jun 29 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Hans Moke Niemann win the 2025 FIDE World Cup? Jun 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Shedeur Sanders be the #1 searched person on Google this year? Jun 29 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Vladimir Fedoseev win the 2025 Chess Esports World Cup? Jun 29 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Forum for Democracy win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands pa Jun 29 $68 −$68 -100%
Will Micheal Martin win the Irish Presidential Election? Jun 29 $37 −$37 -100%
Will Vladimir Putin be the #1 searched person on Google this year? Jun 29 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Yubin Jang win the 2025 LIV Golf Chicago tournament? Jun 29 $9 −$9 -100%
Grok 5 released by March 31, 2026? Jun 29 $89 −$89 -100%
Will Samuel Sevian win the Sinquefield Cup 2025 chess tournament? Jun 29 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 29 $172 −$172 -100%
Will New Social Contract win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands pa Jun 29 $68 −$68 -100%
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 29 $172 −$172 -100%
Will the Christian Union win the second most seats in the 2025 Netherl Jun 29 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Barry Andrews win the Irish Presidential Election? Jun 29 $37 −$37 -100%
Will Joana Amaral Dias win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? Jun 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Maxime Vachier-Lagrave win the 2025 FIDE World Cup? Jun 29 $1 +$72 +11885%
Will Arjun Erigaisi win the 2025 FIDE Grand Swiss chess tournament? Jun 29 $19 −$7 -40%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be the #1 searched person on Google this year Jun 29 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Vincent Keymer win the 2025 FIDE World Cup? Jun 29 $2 +$3 +118%
Will Other be the second most valuable company on October 31? Jun 29 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Vladislav Artemiev win the 2025 Chess Esports World Cup? Jun 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Nihal Sarin win the 2025 Quantbox Chennai Grand Masters? Jun 29 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Frances Black win the Irish Presidential Election? Jun 29 $37 −$37 -100%
Will Pedro Passos Coelho win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? Jun 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Novemb Jun 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
10.0 or above earthquake before 2027? SELL No 98¢ $980 4d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $300 10d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 11d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 11d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 11d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 11d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 11d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 11d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 11d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 11d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 11d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 11d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 11d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 11d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 11d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 11d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 11d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 11d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 11d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 11d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 11d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 11d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 11d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 11d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 11d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 11d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 11d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 11d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 11d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $46,512.23 · official $46,514.19 (match) · 3500 history records